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Hello, everyone. Today is March 11th,
and this is our session number 10 of the

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Wyckoff Trading Course.

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And today we're going to continue with
the exercise on volume and

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price. This is what I call a systematic
exercise. What do I mean by that?

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It systematizes a lot of the knowledge
that we already have, and it combines

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actually not just the volume and price
analysis, but also the price structural

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analysis as well. So that's why I call
this a systematic exercise.

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Our next session next week, March 18th,
and we're going to finish

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this exercise in the next session.

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And then session number 12, 13, 14, and
15 are going to be devoted to two

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things. We're going to talk about
relative and comparative strength

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We'll talk about some of the filtering.

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We'll talk about a Wyckoff trading plan.

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We'll talk about some of the tactics.

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And I'll introduce some of the concepts
that are going to be a breach concepts

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into

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into the WICAV practicum.

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That, by the way, is gonna start, WICAV
practicum is gonna start on

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the 22nd of April. Our last session

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of this class.

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So WTC is gonna end on April 15th.

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This is session number 15.

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And then from here, for those of you
who's gonna take the practicum, we're

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stay on Mondays for the practicum. I'm
just changing a little bit the schedule.

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So the practicum is gonna start on April

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22nd.

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A couple of things with the practicum.
First of all, let's talk about the price

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and let's talk about why the price is
such.

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So the price for you guys is going to be
$598.

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So usually it's $998 because we're going
to have nine sessions there only.

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And I would encourage you to take
advantage of this opportunity because

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it's 15 sessions. So for those of you
who feel like, well, it's just a lot of

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time.

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This is definitely better, nine
sessions, and we're going to do two and

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hours each.

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So kind of like the same as we're doing
this class.

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But what happened with practicum is
there's so much knowledge in the way of

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trading course that I can't give you
even with 15 sessions.

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Knowledge requires practice.

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and we're just trying to practice with
this exercise as much as possible, and

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I'm still delivering you more and more
knowledge.

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So practicum was designed for the drill
exercise, but I'm realizing that

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having the lecture portion of the
practicum and then the drill exercises

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second part of the class works much
better for students. So this is exactly

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I've been doing this cycle, this current
cycle.

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for WTC students who have taken the
class in fall.

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So quite a lot of new things here. First
of all, the price.

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This is grade nine session instead of
15.

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And then we're still staying on Mondays.

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So your schedule for classes is not
going to change.

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If you have Mondays devoted to this
course, then...

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You're just going to proceed with the
Mondays, and we're going to finish that

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course, the practicum. The last session
is going to be on June 17th.

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And, by the way, you can register now.
And I don't know why I didn't put this

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an announcement, so maybe next time I'm
going to start putting this.

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So you can register now. Go to our
website.

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Find the Wyckoff Practicum course and
sign up because

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one of the things that I've noticed with
students throughout all of these

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cycles, and I got to calculate how many
cycles I have actually done with this

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course, but definitely 20 plus, maybe
even more.

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When students go away, they're kind of
excited.

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Now I'm going to... put this into the
action and I'm just going to start

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using this and by all means please do
because it's going to show you

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both it's going to show you the
improvement that you've made over the

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and then it will show you what else you
need to know so I think that it's

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extremely important you know to have
some kind of exposure

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to the market.

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My only advice with that is expose
yourself gradually, right? So this

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apply gradually.

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Seek confirmation that you know and that
you could implement this.

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All right, so that's that.

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And what else? For those of you who...

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I'm not signed up for Linda's Reschke
much special. You can still do this.

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Again, go to our website and sign up.
You still can receive all of the

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recordings and the slides. We just had a
session on Thursday that went really

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well, and we had really good feedback.

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Now, Linda is not necessarily teaching
us Wyckoff method, but she's teaching us

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trading.

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And the main thing with Linda and the
whole special is just to listen to her,

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kind of be in the presence of this
greatness and try to extract as many

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beliefs about trading and markets and
how to behave in markets correctly.

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So extract those ideas as much as
possible.

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All right, a couple of questions. Will
nine sessions cover the same content

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is usually part of the Wyckoff
Practicum? Yeah, it is Practicum, and it

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cover the same material, and not
necessarily the same because I'm always

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changing, always adding, always thinking
about, you know, what is the best

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exercise at this point, and so on and so
forth.

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So the Practicum is a very interesting
being. You know, it just kind of

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develops.

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in the relationship to the group itself.

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So we'll just have to see this, but it's
definitely gonna be more of a feel of

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the Wyckoff Triggin course, rather than
the practicum as it was, let's say, a

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year or two ago.

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But we still will be doing exercise in
each class. So each class, I'm gonna

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have a chart for you where I'm asking
you specific questions. Define the bias.

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Define the selection.

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Define the character.

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And so on and so forth. That's the
purpose of that class.

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Will September's cycle of practicum
course have 15 sessions and will it be

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conducted on Tuesday from Roma?

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Yeah, most likely that's how it's going
to be, 15 sessions. And then this

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is probably going to be the last cycle
of practicum that we have.

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Because starting with January of 2020,
we're going to have Wyckoff Trading

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Course Part 1, the one that you're
taking right now, and Wyckoff Trading

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Part 2, which was a practicum before,
but it's going to be more cohesive and

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it's going to be more comprehensive for
all of the 30 sessions, two parts,

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Part 1, Part 2. So I think this is where
we're going with that.

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Another quick announcement.

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For those of you who are going to repeat
this course during summer, so for those

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of you who is going to sign up for WTC
summer cycle,

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and I would

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highly recommend it if you feel that you
like the course, but you need a

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little bit more time. to get comfortable
with ideas.

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And you need maybe a second rerun just
to repeat this knowledge and

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cement it in your head.

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And this is such a great idea and we
have alumni of this course in this cycle

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well.

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So for the summer cycle, the alumni rate

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is

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And this is going to be only 12
sessions.

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And usually during summer, that's what
we do. I don't teach the full course.

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It's kind of like an abbreviated version
just because some people are much

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busier and this is just our opportunity
to give them that chance to participate.

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So 12 sessions at two and a half hours.

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The price for the alumni rate, so the
regular rate is $7

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.98.

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And then the alumni rate is going to be
$4 .98.

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So really good discount, right?

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Obviously, not as many sessions.

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But on the top of this,

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We have currently a promotion that is
running until

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March 20th.

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If you register for the course and you
email us after your registration

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to WyckoffAssociates at gmail .com and
you say that

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in the title WTC promo,

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then we're going to rebate you $100
back.

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So effectively, your price could be $398
for a

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repeat of this course.

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So think about this. I kind of wanted to
create a very appealing value.

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It seems like it's such a low price, but
I wanted that value to be available to

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you, for those of you who have taken the
class in this cycle.

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and you feel like you want to repeat it,
go for it.

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You know, this is one of the ways to do
this. If you feel more comfortable, go

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for the practicum, because this is the
next step.

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And then, if you have any questions,
obviously, just email me, ask me, and

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be happy to answer.

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Okay.

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Let me just do this, otherwise I will
forget.

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Okay, now I can erase this.

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All right, so today as I mentioned, you
know, we're going to continue with the

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group exercise.

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Then we're going to continue with some
of the OEM case studies. This is

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going to come before the exercise.

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The homework is going to be the same.

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I kind of see a little bit of the
deterioration of the

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participation in the homework.

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So I'm still receiving homeworks, but
not as many as in the first months, not

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many as in the first couple of sessions
on this exercise.

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So I want to encourage you to go back,
re -watch those videos where we discuss

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the exercise.

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make notes, email those to me.

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This is definitely gonna be very
beneficial for your development, for

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knowledge development.

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Session number 11, next session,
basically the same. We're gonna finish

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exercise. This is gonna be the main
purpose of that class.

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If there is anything left on volume,
case studies, I'll bring it up. If not,

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then we're just gonna move on.

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But we will definitely finish the
exercise next time.

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All right, let's go to some questions.

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And the first question comes from Doug.

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Doug is asking, is effort, if effort is
the difference in force between the

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volume signature of two different bars,
then is the result the difference in

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force between the price levels of two
different bars?

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Actually, yes. If you think about, let's
deal with the effort first.

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So we judge the effort by volume.

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And we could say that on, let's say, one
bar to the upside,

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the volume was this.

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And then on another bar,

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in the same direction, the volume
increased.

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So this volume increase in comparison to
bar number one, it suggests that there

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is some kind of difference in the amount
of effort that was put in

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into that second bar.

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So there is more effort to push the
price up.

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So there is a difference in how effort
is being depicted right now.

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The same for the result, because we
could see that the result, let's say in

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case, is going to be all about,

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let's say, something quantifiable,
something...

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visual for us right because we're
reading the chart so we're going to say

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the up spread has increased secondly we
could say

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that maybe close to close the distance
between closes

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right so maybe the previous bar was
somewhere here and that was a previous

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so we see that maybe the close to close
is increasing

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then we might say that, let's say on bar
number one,

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there is some kind of supply tail that
we see.

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So we could say that the close to spread

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has increased as well in bar number two,
and it closes

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so close to the high of that bar.

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And that would be the difference in the
result.

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Obviously, the result is also going to
be associated with the intention, and

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this is something that, you know, not
necessarily Wyckoff into.

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You know, Wyckoff never talked about the
intention of a specific bar.

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But I took it from the significant bar
technique that I've developed for

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and I'm going to introduce this to you
guys.

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briefly in this course and then in more
details during the practicum. During the

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practicum, we're going to be discussing
significant bar as an element, as

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a tool for stop losses and how we would
be moving the stop losses more

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mechanically. Again, not necessarily a
wake -up idea, but something that I've

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realized in the methodology was, you
know, in a way,

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was heavily underdeveloped.

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So I had to think about this and I
introduced just basically the way how I,

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know, trade swings or how I define
swings.

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And that became very popular with a lot
of students.

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Usually students opt out, you know, to
do that instead of the Wyckoff method

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stop losses, which are extremely
discretionary.

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So we'll talk about this.

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And we'll talk about this in the
practicum.

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But intention is slightly different, but
still under the result.

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Let's see what other questions we have
here. Is result indicated as an absolute

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level, whether positive or negative,
namely, result could increase, decrease

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the downside or upside, or is it the
delta, change in the value?

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So definitely we're talking about
specific things, Doug, right? So we know

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those things that we want to define. And
again, they are extremely quantifiable.

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If we're going to look at the spread,
we're going to compare it to the

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subspread, and we will define the spread
as the difference between the high and

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the low.

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There is a variation on the spread with
the true range. We've covered that

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before. Close to close, quantifiable.

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Close to the spread, quantifiable.

229
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:08,340
So we are looking at the differences
among these characteristics.

230
00:19:09,020 --> 00:19:11,860
And obviously, yes, there is a change in
value.

231
00:19:12,100 --> 00:19:15,920
So for instance, if the spread has
increased, so there is a change in

232
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:21,460
If the close to close has progressed
more, there is a change in value.

233
00:19:21,740 --> 00:19:22,960
If there is...

234
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,720
the close, like in this case that I'm
showing here, bar number two, the close

235
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:33,600
much closer to the high of the bar, then
it's quantifiable as well, and

236
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,380
therefore we could extract the value of
change.

237
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:43,860
So yes, it's definitely a quantifiable
change in value

238
00:19:43,860 --> 00:19:44,860
type of parameter.

239
00:19:46,020 --> 00:19:52,810
Having said this, you could say that the
absolute level it's going to be related

240
00:19:52,810 --> 00:19:55,510
to the intention itself.

241
00:19:58,190 --> 00:20:02,610
Right, because we are going to be
looking at some level of resistance or

242
00:20:02,610 --> 00:20:04,210
support, it doesn't really matter.

243
00:20:04,790 --> 00:20:10,890
And then we're going to be looking for
the bar that's going to try to overcome

244
00:20:10,890 --> 00:20:12,510
this point of resistance.

245
00:20:12,750 --> 00:20:17,170
So intention behind this bar is going to
commit above.

246
00:20:25,340 --> 00:20:28,560
Therefore, from that perspective, you

247
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:35,420
could define the intention, whether it

248
00:20:35,420 --> 00:20:40,500
was fulfilled or not, in absolute terms
because you could define the level of

249
00:20:40,500 --> 00:20:42,780
resistance. Let's say it's $100 here.

250
00:20:43,260 --> 00:20:50,240
If the price does not commit on the
absolute value above

251
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,660
$100, then what does it mean? This means
that intention has failed.

252
00:20:55,400 --> 00:21:00,960
If the price does commit above and
closes above 100,

253
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:07,800
then in absolute terms, yeah, the result
has changed as well.

254
00:21:09,100 --> 00:21:13,500
So really good question. Quite a few
distinctions right there.

255
00:21:16,580 --> 00:21:21,140
And then we go a little bit into more
details with sub -questions right here.

256
00:21:23,190 --> 00:21:26,610
And let me just kind of like rephrase
this a little bit.

257
00:21:26,990 --> 00:21:31,430
Actually, let me read this. Is an
increasing result to the downside

258
00:21:31,430 --> 00:21:35,690
as an increase in the result or a
decrease because of a smaller absolute

259
00:21:35,810 --> 00:21:37,670
Is an increasing result to the downside?

260
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:52,640
I'm not sure about this question.

261
00:21:53,380 --> 00:21:57,400
So let's just not go there, it's
decreasing, okay.

262
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:03,240
The decreasing result to the upside
communicated as a decrease or increase

263
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,320
because it's still high prices.

264
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:16,960
So Doug, I think that what you're
talking about is in the context, let's

265
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:17,960
an up swing.

266
00:22:18,360 --> 00:22:20,340
where maybe a result is decreasing.

267
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,840
So let's say spread is decreasing.

268
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,840
Maybe volume signature is decreasing.

269
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,120
If I understand the question correctly.

270
00:22:31,420 --> 00:22:36,860
So how would that be interpreted?

271
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,700
So we still would be looking for what?

272
00:22:40,900 --> 00:22:42,600
We would be looking for the previous
bars.

273
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:48,240
right and we would be comparing the last
bar with decreasing result uh with the

274
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:54,180
bars um on the same rally we just have
to we just have to figure this out um

275
00:22:54,180 --> 00:22:59,920
so in a way we could have a decreasing
result

276
00:22:59,920 --> 00:23:06,740
on a rally in a bullish environment

277
00:23:11,980 --> 00:23:16,180
So hopefully, you know, I'm addressing
this in the correct way.

278
00:23:16,460 --> 00:23:21,040
I'm just trying to see if I'm
understanding the question correctly.

279
00:23:21,500 --> 00:23:25,620
So yeah, you could have in the bullish
context a decreasing result. You could

280
00:23:25,620 --> 00:23:32,580
have in the context of the downswing a
decreasing result to the downside as

281
00:23:32,580 --> 00:23:33,580
well.

282
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:35,460
Yeah, so that's possible.

283
00:23:36,170 --> 00:23:37,790
Okay, really good questions.

284
00:23:38,230 --> 00:23:41,470
Some interesting distinctions that we
are discussing here.

285
00:23:43,890 --> 00:23:45,510
All right, so thank you, Doug.

286
00:23:45,710 --> 00:23:47,070
Let's go to the next question.

287
00:23:47,910 --> 00:23:50,290
All right, next question comes from
Adam.

288
00:23:52,210 --> 00:23:58,350
And Adam is asking, was today an ease of
movement bar in the markets?

289
00:23:58,870 --> 00:24:00,050
So let's look at that.

290
00:24:02,570 --> 00:24:04,450
By the way, before...

291
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:09,880
I feel like I have to clear my throat.
Before I answer this, what do you guys

292
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,800
think? Is this an ease of movement day
or not?

293
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,460
So write your answers really quick.

294
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:34,720
Yeah, Adam.

295
00:24:34,780 --> 00:24:36,540
Doesn't matter what you used.

296
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,860
Let's just kind of like see what we've
got here.

297
00:24:42,780 --> 00:24:46,480
All right, so I'm trying to get the
answers, and I'm not getting anything.

298
00:24:47,020 --> 00:24:48,020
What's going on, guys?

299
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:52,080
Okay, let's get into the working mode.
Let's go, let's go, let's go.

300
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:53,520
Let's just be quick.

301
00:24:54,380 --> 00:25:00,720
You know, don't think about anything
else, but the question is the last bar,

302
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,140
an ease of movement bar.

303
00:25:05,770 --> 00:25:09,530
Okay, not sure. Does not look like one
to me.

304
00:25:10,010 --> 00:25:11,010
Yes.

305
00:25:11,610 --> 00:25:12,610
No.

306
00:25:16,490 --> 00:25:19,990
Yeah. Okay, so we're kind of divided 50
-50, right?

307
00:25:21,010 --> 00:25:25,710
Okay, so first of all, we'll have more
material on ease of movement.

308
00:25:28,790 --> 00:25:30,310
So that's still coming.

309
00:25:30,730 --> 00:25:32,830
We'll talk about this in the next
session.

310
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:40,940
But let's quickly define what ease of
movement is, right? So ease of movement

311
00:25:40,940 --> 00:25:46,980
is going to have the characteristics of
expanding result

312
00:25:46,980 --> 00:25:53,620
and diminishing effort, or

313
00:25:53,620 --> 00:25:55,120
on diminishing effort.

314
00:25:57,980 --> 00:26:03,040
Obviously, in the buy direction,

315
00:26:05,550 --> 00:26:07,130
in the direction of the bias.

316
00:26:11,530 --> 00:26:17,970
And then under the result, what's
important is that we are going to have

317
00:26:17,970 --> 00:26:20,470
the intention

318
00:26:20,470 --> 00:26:25,070
satisfying

319
00:26:25,070 --> 00:26:30,350
satisfying the

320
00:26:30,350 --> 00:26:33,790
commitment requirements.

321
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:37,160
So let me go through this again.

322
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,080
We're gonna see the increased result.

323
00:26:42,540 --> 00:26:49,060
And predominantly the intention behind
this result is gonna be

324
00:26:49,060 --> 00:26:50,060
positive.

325
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,420
And it's gonna happen on the decreasing
effort.

326
00:26:55,200 --> 00:27:01,960
And usually the decreasing effort is
gonna indicate that the

327
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:07,620
Opposing to the bias force, in this
case, because the bias is what? The bias

328
00:27:07,620 --> 00:27:08,640
up here, right?

329
00:27:12,620 --> 00:27:15,220
So the opposing effort

330
00:27:15,220 --> 00:27:21,880
is gonna

331
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:27,740
have the characteristics of weakness,
right? So we could say that supply is

332
00:27:27,740 --> 00:27:28,920
poor.

333
00:27:30,830 --> 00:27:35,010
At this point of time, how do we
conclude that supply is poor? Well, we

334
00:27:35,010 --> 00:27:41,410
the chart. We look at the supply that's
coming in. And on Wednesday's calls, you

335
00:27:41,410 --> 00:27:44,710
know, I was talking about this area
right here.

336
00:27:45,350 --> 00:27:51,670
And we've talked about how the last ball
looked climactic, how there is a very

337
00:27:51,670 --> 00:27:56,670
subtle increase of the supply that
suggested that's going to be some kind

338
00:27:56,670 --> 00:27:57,670
reaction.

339
00:27:59,310 --> 00:28:04,070
That's going to happen. Then we said
that with this reaction, we need to

340
00:28:04,070 --> 00:28:07,410
understand what is the character of this
reaction that's going to develop.

341
00:28:07,710 --> 00:28:09,650
And then we developed two scenarios.

342
00:28:10,130 --> 00:28:13,910
One is kind of like a deep reaction.

343
00:28:15,110 --> 00:28:16,870
And another one is shallow.

344
00:28:18,650 --> 00:28:24,930
And we want to understand if the shallow
reaction comes, that we would have an

345
00:28:24,930 --> 00:28:28,610
opportunity to continue the trend.

346
00:28:30,060 --> 00:28:32,800
we also would have an opportunity to
consolidate.

347
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,800
And then if this is a deeper reaction,
then we're definitely looking at more of

348
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:43,160
the testing type of, testing of the
loads, of the December loads type of

349
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:50,720
All right, so it seems like so
discretionary, this whole thing, the

350
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:56,140
logic. But then when you go through all
of this, there are algorithms that are

351
00:28:56,140 --> 00:28:59,100
basically leading us to specific
conclusions.

352
00:28:59,930 --> 00:29:03,370
And this is what I want you guys to get,
you know, as the skill, as your

353
00:29:03,370 --> 00:29:05,310
analytical skill from this course.

354
00:29:05,590 --> 00:29:07,590
So let's look at the buying climax here.

355
00:29:08,410 --> 00:29:13,690
So very subtle increase of the supply,
suggesting that we're going to have a

356
00:29:13,690 --> 00:29:14,690
reaction.

357
00:29:14,730 --> 00:29:21,370
Reaction timing is being defined by a
change of character bar that

358
00:29:21,370 --> 00:29:27,250
suggests that we are in a consolidation.
We are in some kind of reactionary

359
00:29:27,250 --> 00:29:33,360
mode. And off we go to the downside. But
now look at how the

360
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,060
price goes down.

361
00:29:36,260 --> 00:29:42,060
We were anticipating that the price
would have some kind of acceleration to

362
00:29:42,060 --> 00:29:48,900
downside. And instead, we see that the
volume decreases, meaning that,

363
00:29:49,020 --> 00:29:52,260
and obviously decreases relative to
what?

364
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:57,060
Relative with which we start here on the
increase of the supply, all of the

365
00:29:57,060 --> 00:30:01,660
other. Volume signatures to the downside
are decreasing relative to that bar.

366
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:08,920
So therefore, we are most likely seeing
a diminishing

367
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:10,800
effort to the downside.

368
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,200
So the downside effort is diminishing.

369
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:22,600
So therefore, we would be thinking that
this is more of a bullish sign. If this

370
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,480
is more of a bullish sign, then our...

371
00:30:25,850 --> 00:30:32,590
two scenarios on the shallow reaction
are going to be probably working much

372
00:30:32,590 --> 00:30:35,230
better at this point of time.

373
00:30:35,570 --> 00:30:40,250
But coming back to the ease of movement,
so we want to oppose an effort to be

374
00:30:40,250 --> 00:30:46,850
poor. Would you say that supply is in
control in the last, let's say,

375
00:30:47,030 --> 00:30:50,670
two weeks, three weeks, you know, a
month?

376
00:30:51,170 --> 00:30:53,030
Even if I would take...

377
00:30:53,290 --> 00:30:55,690
the last five, six, seven days.

378
00:30:56,010 --> 00:30:59,530
It seems like it is because we have a
reaction.

379
00:31:00,190 --> 00:31:07,130
But it also could mean that on this
reaction that we see,

380
00:31:07,350 --> 00:31:14,170
we could say that supply is poor and
demand is diminishing. And

381
00:31:14,170 --> 00:31:19,030
that's why that produced a natural
technical reaction.

382
00:31:21,550 --> 00:31:25,710
And, oh, boy, did we have a discussion
in the practicum about technical

383
00:31:25,710 --> 00:31:26,810
and technical rally.

384
00:31:27,050 --> 00:31:33,010
So that's a little bit more advanced,
and we still have to go through this in

385
00:31:33,010 --> 00:31:36,670
the practicum and kind of like put the
last dot on

386
00:31:36,670 --> 00:31:43,670
the conversation, but that was a really
good conversation.

387
00:31:44,070 --> 00:31:45,830
Why is this a technical reaction?

388
00:31:46,150 --> 00:31:50,570
Well, because supply is poor, and only
because demand.

389
00:31:51,260 --> 00:31:56,340
has been exhausted with all of this
momentum moves to the upside. Look at

390
00:31:56,340 --> 00:31:57,800
many swings we had to the upside.

391
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,800
One, two, three, four.

392
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:07,100
Four big swings of momentum buying that
we had to the upside.

393
00:32:07,380 --> 00:32:11,120
So that suggests that we're going to
have some kind of reaction just because

394
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,440
demand has been exhausted a little bit.

395
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:18,920
And if demand is exhausted and supply is
poor,

396
00:32:19,660 --> 00:32:23,540
It's going to produce some kind of
reaction, but it's not going to be

397
00:32:23,540 --> 00:32:25,220
with the distribution necessarily.

398
00:32:25,780 --> 00:32:30,400
And therefore, it becomes more of a
technical reaction within the

399
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:34,340
confines of the upswing.

400
00:32:35,380 --> 00:32:39,180
So we are kind of good on the bias here.

401
00:32:39,580 --> 00:32:42,220
All right, well, look at the last bar.

402
00:32:42,420 --> 00:32:44,980
Let me just clean this up.

403
00:32:51,940 --> 00:32:58,480
Let's look at the last bar, and let's go
through the definition again of the use

404
00:32:58,480 --> 00:32:59,319
of movement.

405
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:04,800
Do we have supply that is poor? Yes.

406
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:08,300
Diminution demand on the reaction?

407
00:33:08,580 --> 00:33:11,700
Yes. We have that, or diminution react
on the upside? Yes.

408
00:33:12,100 --> 00:33:18,660
So now what we want to see is through
the reaction that was a

409
00:33:18,660 --> 00:33:19,840
technical reaction.

410
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,900
we want to see supply being exhausted.

411
00:33:31,140 --> 00:33:33,920
At least temporarily, at least short
term.

412
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:43,480
And with that exhaustion, now imagine
that supply is exhausted

413
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:49,040
and demand is

414
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,720
tired too, right?

415
00:33:55,020 --> 00:34:01,860
So both of the forces, buying and
selling, are hesitant to go in into the

416
00:34:01,860 --> 00:34:03,560
market and produce the next wave.

417
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:09,020
The buyers are hesitant because, well,
they've been buying for two months now,

418
00:34:09,139 --> 00:34:10,420
more than two months.

419
00:34:10,820 --> 00:34:15,340
So whoever wanted to get into the
position already in the position.

420
00:34:16,300 --> 00:34:21,400
That advanced the price so much that
there is no value even.

421
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:26,460
for some of the institutions to be in
the market, to be active in the market

422
00:34:26,460 --> 00:34:32,540
right now. There is more value for
institutions right now to think about,

423
00:34:32,540 --> 00:34:33,540
already in the position.

424
00:34:33,820 --> 00:34:40,159
How do I hedge my positions against a
possible

425
00:34:40,159 --> 00:34:42,380
volatility that might come next?

426
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:50,179
Something maybe like of this variety
sort, of this sort.

427
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:54,719
where we have more reactions that would
create the trading range.

428
00:34:55,960 --> 00:35:01,480
So therefore, the buyers are not

429
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:03,040
active.

430
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:12,540
And then the sellers are kind of the
same way. Why?

431
00:35:12,720 --> 00:35:19,320
Well, because they've been selling on
the way down and they had profits.

432
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:23,940
And then once the price went up, what do
you think they did?

433
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:29,900
They started selling again. Or they
added to the position. Or they

434
00:35:29,900 --> 00:35:30,839
new positions.

435
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:37,740
And what was the premise of that? All
because they are thinking here, sellers.

436
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:40,760
Sentiment.

437
00:35:43,240 --> 00:35:46,680
They are thinking that we are in the
bear market. That's number one.

438
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:53,100
So their bias and therefore their
behaviors are going to be determined by

439
00:35:53,100 --> 00:35:58,840
bias. And secondly, they think that we
are in a short -term overbought

440
00:35:58,840 --> 00:35:59,840
condition.

441
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:04,060
Literally here, here, here, here.

442
00:36:04,740 --> 00:36:10,420
And what they do is they sell, they
sell, they sell, they sell.

443
00:36:10,940 --> 00:36:12,380
To what end?

444
00:36:13,140 --> 00:36:14,940
Obviously to a loss.

445
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,300
So they're going to produce loss.

446
00:36:19,390 --> 00:36:22,630
Loss, loss, loss.

447
00:36:24,290 --> 00:36:30,810
And this collection of losses, even
though they're still extremely

448
00:36:30,810 --> 00:36:37,710
sure that this is a bear market, leads
them to the state

449
00:36:37,710 --> 00:36:39,270
of exhaustion.

450
00:36:39,970 --> 00:36:43,130
So sellers are exhausted at this point.

451
00:36:43,790 --> 00:36:47,890
So therefore, when they are exhausted,
especially emotionally, what do you

452
00:36:47,890 --> 00:36:48,888
they're going to do?

453
00:36:48,890 --> 00:36:53,190
They're going to withdraw from the
market and they also become inactive.

454
00:37:00,730 --> 00:37:04,390
And therefore, at this point of time,
this is what we see in the volume

455
00:37:04,390 --> 00:37:05,390
signature.

456
00:37:06,110 --> 00:37:10,390
It's almost like there is not a lot of
participation.

457
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:16,160
There is some, but not as much as we
have had, let's say, in this area right

458
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:17,160
here.

459
00:37:17,720 --> 00:37:19,600
So what does this remind you of?

460
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,840
Well, probably this environment right
here,

461
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:30,360
something like this, where we're just
kind of neutral, and we have some kind

462
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:35,340
reactions within the context of the
swing, and those are fine. They're still

463
00:37:35,340 --> 00:37:39,800
within the bigger context of a much
larger move to the offside.

464
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:47,040
It still tells us a story that, yeah, we
are exhausted in general.

465
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:51,680
Bars are inactive. They're already in
the position.

466
00:37:51,980 --> 00:37:57,540
And then sellers are just exhausted with
all of the losses, so they are out of

467
00:37:57,540 --> 00:37:58,319
this position.

468
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:02,360
And they don't want to come in on short
at this point just because they don't

469
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:03,600
want to be wrong again.

470
00:38:03,820 --> 00:38:08,030
So that's the whole story. sentiment
picture that we have currently in the

471
00:38:08,030 --> 00:38:12,530
market and it still favors the bullish
scenario no matter how it's going to

472
00:38:12,530 --> 00:38:18,030
unfold even if we're going to have a
much deeper reaction let's say to 2600

473
00:38:18,030 --> 00:38:25,010
fmp uh something like this then you know
it's still going to be within the uh

474
00:38:25,010 --> 00:38:30,890
framework of this bullish momentum rally
that we have had just recently

475
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:37,840
i'm trying to finish on the ease of
movement but there are so many thoughts

476
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:43,520
come to my mind as we discuss this so
let's talk about these a moment again

477
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:49,740
um do we have an expanding result

478
00:38:49,740 --> 00:38:56,640
to the upside well

479
00:38:56,640 --> 00:39:01,520
let's go one by one let's say an up
spread

480
00:39:03,690 --> 00:39:08,470
It did increase relative to the spread
that we've seen just recently, and the

481
00:39:08,470 --> 00:39:13,710
spread. Yeah, if we would look into this
area right here on the last rally,

482
00:39:13,890 --> 00:39:20,770
actually, even if we look at some of the
prior spreads as well, maybe this

483
00:39:20,770 --> 00:39:23,950
one is a true range.

484
00:39:27,510 --> 00:39:28,770
That's even larger.

485
00:39:29,490 --> 00:39:34,050
So we could see that in the last months
or so, This is the best bar.

486
00:39:34,730 --> 00:39:37,030
So yes, I check.

487
00:39:40,250 --> 00:39:41,250
Close to close.

488
00:39:46,110 --> 00:39:47,790
Yes, check.

489
00:39:48,730 --> 00:39:55,130
Definitely, we are at a much better
close to the upside than

490
00:39:55,130 --> 00:39:59,530
what we had here, and we don't even have
a close to close to the upside here.

491
00:39:59,770 --> 00:40:01,290
This is close.

492
00:40:02,170 --> 00:40:07,050
from one down bar to another down bar,
but we are overcoming all of those, and

493
00:40:07,050 --> 00:40:08,210
this is a much better close.

494
00:40:09,530 --> 00:40:11,290
What about close to spread?

495
00:40:12,450 --> 00:40:13,450
Yes, as well.

496
00:40:17,110 --> 00:40:23,150
And we could probably judge this by
maybe like the previous bar that has a

497
00:40:23,150 --> 00:40:25,070
bullish characteristic built in it.

498
00:40:26,190 --> 00:40:30,790
The price has kept down on the open.

499
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:36,800
went down and then closed up like this
so we definitely see the improvement

500
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:43,340
both on the close to close and close to
spread and up spread and so on so forth

501
00:40:43,340 --> 00:40:48,680
and then we said that the effort

502
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:55,640
to the upside for the ease of movement
needs to decrease and we see that in the

503
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:59,020
volume signature so on the relatively
light volume

504
00:41:00,910 --> 00:41:05,990
compared to what we've seen before, we
are actually moving nicely.

505
00:41:06,430 --> 00:41:10,710
So now a tricky part comes, intention.

506
00:41:12,110 --> 00:41:18,330
So with the intention here, we should
think about this in kind of like two

507
00:41:18,330 --> 00:41:22,750
terms, short -term intention and then
long -term intention.

508
00:41:23,750 --> 00:41:29,550
So short -term intention was to close
favorably

509
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:37,120
over what we have had as a commitment in
the most recent price action. What was

510
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:41,640
that commitment? It was commitment to
the downside, right? So we had closes

511
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:44,680
down, close down, close down.

512
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,960
Are we committing above those closes?

513
00:41:49,180 --> 00:41:55,960
Could the professionals, even with
minimum effort, push the price in such a

514
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,900
that it's going to close above previous
closes?

515
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:06,140
and we could definitely see that one two
three three

516
00:42:06,140 --> 00:42:12,940
bars or three closes rather this bar has
overcome the latest three bars to the

517
00:42:12,940 --> 00:42:19,760
downside and it did so in one day not in
two not in three not in four in one day

518
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:25,520
so it took the price three days to go
down and it took just you know, a day

519
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:27,580
a half to rally off this low.

520
00:42:27,860 --> 00:42:30,920
So definitely we are satisfying a short
-term intention.

521
00:42:31,460 --> 00:42:33,520
Now what about the long -term intention?

522
00:42:33,940 --> 00:42:39,560
Well, the long -term intention here is
obviously to overcome a

523
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:44,860
resistance that has been created by the
high of the sub -swing.

524
00:42:45,780 --> 00:42:46,800
Have we done so?

525
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:48,320
No.

526
00:42:48,860 --> 00:42:53,160
And that's the key here to this
question. Is this an ease of movement

527
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,120
On a short -term basis, yes.

528
00:42:56,660 --> 00:43:01,940
On a longer -term basis, we still have
to see the commitment above this area.

529
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:08,940
So this bar has all of the
characteristics for the ease of

530
00:43:08,940 --> 00:43:11,960
an ease of movement on the short -term
timeframe.

531
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:14,920
And yet,

532
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:22,020
having all of these characteristics, on
a long -term basis, it does not show us

533
00:43:22,020 --> 00:43:23,620
that ease of movement yet.

534
00:43:24,300 --> 00:43:29,800
But it can if the next bar or within the
series of bars, we're going to have

535
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:30,800
something like this.

536
00:43:31,980 --> 00:43:38,880
And, you know, I've discussed in the WMD
what could be the catalyst for this

537
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:41,240
type of move, what would be this type of
commitment.

538
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:45,380
And I've shown you guys some analogs
from the past.

539
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,140
So let's talk about the catalyst.

540
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:56,960
Catalyst most likely is going to be
associated with China,

541
00:43:57,260 --> 00:43:59,580
U .S. stocks.

542
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:06,440
Imagine everything comes together,
everybody's excited, and what do you

543
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,840
the market's going to do?

544
00:44:09,240 --> 00:44:13,820
most likely is just going to go to this
level very quickly. So there's going to

545
00:44:13,820 --> 00:44:15,220
be some kind of acceleration.

546
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:20,020
That's number one. So that's like the
most bullish scenario that we could see.

547
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,720
So and this would conclude this run.

548
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:28,880
After this, we're definitely coming back
in a big way because the institutions

549
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:33,860
are going to see this as an opportunity
of liquidity value close to the long

550
00:44:33,860 --> 00:44:37,000
-term uncertainty high, and they're
going to start selling.

551
00:44:41,780 --> 00:44:44,780
Okay, so we're talking about the
catalyst, yes.

552
00:44:46,860 --> 00:44:49,420
What else did I want to mention here?
What's this?

553
00:44:52,980 --> 00:44:55,860
Oh yes, so the analogs for this.

554
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:05,380
So look at the Dow Industrial in 1974,

555
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:07,200
75.

556
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:14,280
And 75 was such great analog for this
rally.

557
00:45:14,580 --> 00:45:20,700
And if something like this develops, or
maybe even something of a small

558
00:45:20,700 --> 00:45:26,940
trading range shape and then going up
out of that, this is going to look more

559
00:45:26,940 --> 00:45:27,940
like 75.

560
00:45:28,900 --> 00:45:35,480
Tesla in 2014, 15,

561
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:36,680
16.

562
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:45,020
Look into that, had the same big
structure trading range, and then a

563
00:45:45,020 --> 00:45:50,980
shakeout in the middle, and then a quick
rally to the upthrust

564
00:45:50,980 --> 00:45:57,740
reaction, and then a prolonged
consolidation, almost like a year.

565
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:02,420
And out of that consolidation, then the
price started to go up.

566
00:46:04,700 --> 00:46:09,080
quite a few still scenarios of how it's
gonna unfold, but it's very encouraging

567
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:16,060
how the reaction is behaving, and that's
why it's not just enough to

568
00:46:16,060 --> 00:46:19,500
identify that the reaction is gonna
happen.

569
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:27,600
What we should be concerned about is the
way how it happens, because the way

570
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:33,200
how it happens will define the short
-term bias and sometimes long -term bias

571
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:34,200
well.

572
00:46:34,540 --> 00:46:38,720
All right, great. Let me see some
comments here.

573
00:46:47,340 --> 00:46:54,200
Okay, so Eric is asking, in this
reaccumulation, is public selling or

574
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:59,460
is CO taking partial profits? And Eric,
you have to be a little bit more

575
00:46:59,460 --> 00:47:04,270
specific. So when you talk about
reaccumulation, I'm looking at this

576
00:47:04,270 --> 00:47:05,270
right here.

577
00:47:06,950 --> 00:47:11,530
So what are we talking about? Are we
talking about the specific spot from the

578
00:47:11,530 --> 00:47:15,430
low to the up? You mean from this low to
this?

579
00:47:16,910 --> 00:47:23,270
Right? Okay. Well, let's talk about
this. So obviously here,

580
00:47:23,510 --> 00:47:29,950
extreme oversold and extreme value.

581
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:37,160
and extreme liquidity so ceo is doing
what ceo is buying

582
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:43,520
then on the way up

583
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:50,360
as we look at the momentum look at the
where momentum picked right

584
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:53,960
here on this bar so all of this

585
00:47:58,030 --> 00:48:00,710
It's going to be institutional trend
followers.

586
00:48:01,170 --> 00:48:05,230
What do they do? They are gradually
getting into the position.

587
00:48:05,950 --> 00:48:12,190
And they are getting into the position
gradually just based on their

588
00:48:12,190 --> 00:48:17,350
level of confidence and their systems.
And the system just basically tells,

589
00:48:17,490 --> 00:48:20,010
okay, expose yourself more, more.

590
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:27,500
And I see institutional systems are
often based on this, on kind

591
00:48:27,500 --> 00:48:33,900
of like this confirmation of the
system's signals.

592
00:48:34,260 --> 00:48:41,120
So asset allocation is based on how the
system confirms specific environment.

593
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:47,680
And I'm actually thinking here, and for
those of you who are institutional guys,

594
00:48:47,860 --> 00:48:48,860
you know,

595
00:48:50,190 --> 00:48:56,590
I think that it's a model that was based
more on

596
00:48:56,590 --> 00:49:00,530
the idea of the preservation of capital.

597
00:49:01,730 --> 00:49:07,950
And I think that in the institutional
world, we kind of all of us are so

598
00:49:07,950 --> 00:49:12,550
concerned about losing the capital.

599
00:49:12,910 --> 00:49:16,450
Because if you lose the capital, you
lose your job.

600
00:49:16,870 --> 00:49:19,150
That's what it basically...

601
00:49:19,890 --> 00:49:26,870
If I have my personal account, and let's
say that I lose the money, it

602
00:49:26,870 --> 00:49:31,930
doesn't mean that I'm going to stop
investing or trading in that account.

603
00:49:32,390 --> 00:49:35,010
And I still have that job.

604
00:49:35,230 --> 00:49:36,530
Because institutions are different.

605
00:49:36,950 --> 00:49:43,890
They produce a bad performance, and then
their

606
00:49:43,890 --> 00:49:45,110
job is in jeopardy.

607
00:49:46,970 --> 00:49:53,670
So that triggers specific behaviors by
money managers.

608
00:49:54,170 --> 00:49:56,750
So they wanna be tentative.

609
00:49:57,650 --> 00:49:59,650
And they seek confirmation.

610
00:50:00,610 --> 00:50:05,350
And what it does, Adam, by the way,
yeah, I agree with you on that.

611
00:50:06,650 --> 00:50:12,670
What it does is money managers at this
spot are gonna be

612
00:50:12,670 --> 00:50:13,730
tentative.

613
00:50:16,330 --> 00:50:18,370
and they will seek confirmation.

614
00:50:22,270 --> 00:50:27,270
And look at this and what this produces.
If they seek the confirmation, they

615
00:50:27,270 --> 00:50:28,330
underexpose.

616
00:50:32,390 --> 00:50:35,910
And then because of that, they
underperform.

617
00:50:40,810 --> 00:50:43,410
And they underperform especially

618
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:51,300
And this is just a variation, especially
on momentum rally,

619
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:53,180
like we just had.

620
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:59,960
So the reason why I'm talking about this
is because this is a current problem, a

621
00:50:59,960 --> 00:51:04,020
puzzle that I'm trying to solve for some
of the institutional clients.

622
00:51:04,540 --> 00:51:07,200
Because that's the question that is
being posed to me.

623
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:13,680
How is it that we were correct on the
bias of the low?

624
00:51:14,190 --> 00:51:20,350
We started buying, and we're still
underexposed, and we are barely, barely

625
00:51:20,350 --> 00:51:21,690
matching the market.

626
00:51:21,970 --> 00:51:25,670
Well, you can't really do a lot here
with this rally.

627
00:51:25,910 --> 00:51:31,610
It's almost like the solutions to this
problem, and I wonder, guys, if you

628
00:51:31,610 --> 00:51:32,950
have other solutions as well.

629
00:51:33,270 --> 00:51:40,130
Solution to this problem is going to be
all contextual, meaning

630
00:51:40,130 --> 00:51:46,440
that in this environment where you're
extremely oversold and there is so much

631
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:47,440
value in liquidity,

632
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:50,660
you should be exposing yourself.

633
00:51:52,940 --> 00:51:57,780
The only other question here, if this is
gonna develop into the bear market. So

634
00:51:57,780 --> 00:52:02,080
like there are so many thoughts that I
have on this, not necessarily wanna go

635
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:06,020
into this because we're already at four
o 'clock almost, but this is a very

636
00:52:06,020 --> 00:52:10,600
interesting puzzle and this is something
that maybe I'll discuss more.

637
00:52:11,820 --> 00:52:17,240
you know in the practicum so solutions
contextual right so you're you're going

638
00:52:17,240 --> 00:52:23,900
to be thinking about your weight in a
specific sectors groups and so on so

639
00:52:23,900 --> 00:52:28,240
secondly market oriented

640
00:52:28,240 --> 00:52:34,920
exposure for your portfolio and

641
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:36,820
that could be in the

642
00:52:37,660 --> 00:52:44,520
In the case, we could be thinking about
specific ETFs that could

643
00:52:44,520 --> 00:52:51,040
be related either to the market itself
or to specific groups that we think are

644
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:52,040
going to outperform.

645
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:57,160
Then the third one is just the portfolio
risk itself.

646
00:53:00,020 --> 00:53:04,080
How do you manage your portfolio risk in
this environment?

647
00:53:08,140 --> 00:53:12,880
and underexposed, you're going to lose
just on underperformance.

648
00:53:13,220 --> 00:53:17,680
So for money managers, not just making
money is not enough.

649
00:53:18,940 --> 00:53:22,860
You're always being measured against the
market, against your peers.

650
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:28,160
And this is where you could lose your
job as well. So if you're

651
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:33,760
consistently, then you might have fewer
capital coming your way.

652
00:53:35,160 --> 00:53:40,740
So the portfolio risk question is a very
interesting contextual point here for

653
00:53:40,740 --> 00:53:41,740
us to think.

654
00:53:43,100 --> 00:53:45,200
So maybe like ETFs.

655
00:53:45,660 --> 00:53:52,520
And then also, I'm thinking and I kind
of suggested that there

656
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:59,460
might be some smaller leveraged
positions that you could

657
00:53:59,460 --> 00:54:00,460
use here.

658
00:54:02,460 --> 00:54:03,660
Smaller leverage.

659
00:54:04,750 --> 00:54:05,890
leveraged positions.

660
00:54:07,970 --> 00:54:14,670
So for instance, if your institutional
risk there is at 1%, you could say that

661
00:54:14,670 --> 00:54:20,570
I'm gonna expose a quarter of that
percent to more risk than usual.

662
00:54:20,790 --> 00:54:26,420
But in the environment like this, if it
works out, it's going to, you know,

663
00:54:26,420 --> 00:54:30,140
bring me, let's say, additional percent
or percent plus.

664
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:35,880
So in a way, you're kind of creating
that three to one, five to one

665
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:38,500
on reward and risk.

666
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,540
And you're improving your equity in
that.

667
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:43,540
allows you to outperform.

668
00:54:43,860 --> 00:54:48,740
This has to be timed more properly, this
has to be selected more properly, but

669
00:54:48,740 --> 00:54:54,560
if it works, then you're going to
benefit from that.

670
00:54:55,320 --> 00:55:00,160
And then the last one is you definitely
want to understand how you're going to

671
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:06,920
do your hedge at the top of the

672
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:07,920
rally.

673
00:55:09,770 --> 00:55:13,750
because you're going to have, your
portfolio is going to have some

674
00:55:13,750 --> 00:55:18,370
that, you know, maybe majority of the
positions that are going to advance,

675
00:55:18,370 --> 00:55:22,990
like 20 % that are not going to advance,
80 % that are going to advance. Out of

676
00:55:22,990 --> 00:55:28,350
those 80%, you're going to have some of
the positions that advanced, but not as

677
00:55:28,350 --> 00:55:29,350
much.

678
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:32,080
You're going to have 20 % that advanced
a lot.

679
00:55:32,300 --> 00:55:34,620
So you definitely want to keep those.

680
00:55:34,900 --> 00:55:41,900
And you want to understand how you hedge
against an upcoming reaction for all

681
00:55:41,900 --> 00:55:46,940
of your positions. So maybe the ones
that did not advance as much and you see

682
00:55:46,940 --> 00:55:51,720
some short -term deterioration in the
price and volume signature, those you

683
00:55:51,720 --> 00:55:52,578
could hedge more.

684
00:55:52,580 --> 00:55:58,360
And the ones that are there, uh showing
more bullishness you could just leave

685
00:55:58,360 --> 00:56:04,680
alone and just seek the opportunity to
add on the way down so quite a few ways

686
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:11,300
you know to tackle this problem and to
think about this puzzle all right so

687
00:56:11,300 --> 00:56:15,880
side notes today but hopefully all good
guys and hopefully we are

688
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:20,480
um we are uh covering

689
00:56:21,410 --> 00:56:25,250
some of the material that you could use
in your own trading as well. And

690
00:56:25,250 --> 00:56:28,790
everything, by the way, everything that
I've said, if you have a portfolio of,

691
00:56:28,810 --> 00:56:35,810
let's say, 100, 200, 300, 500, something
like this, up to a million, and we

692
00:56:35,810 --> 00:56:40,770
have students like that, this is your
topic.

693
00:56:41,290 --> 00:56:46,530
This is how to manage your portfolio,
how to understand the portfolio risks at

694
00:56:46,530 --> 00:56:47,910
the specific structural spot.

695
00:56:48,670 --> 00:56:53,750
Again, maybe something a little bit more
advanced for this class, but something

696
00:56:53,750 --> 00:56:57,370
to think about, something to think about
while you're taking the practical

697
00:56:57,370 --> 00:57:00,190
because those things are going to come
up and we'll discuss those.

698
00:57:01,670 --> 00:57:02,770
One last thing.

699
00:57:03,290 --> 00:57:07,870
What I like about this last bar, and
obviously, again, short -term intention

700
00:57:07,870 --> 00:57:13,930
satisfied, but long -term is not, right?
So we still have to overcome this point

701
00:57:13,930 --> 00:57:17,350
of the resistance that played out so
many times before.

702
00:57:18,230 --> 00:57:22,050
So until we have that bar, we're still
thinking that the long -term intention

703
00:57:22,050 --> 00:57:23,550
has not been fulfilled.

704
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:28,560
But look at the momentum, how the
momentum comes to, and I'm always using

705
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:29,279
of change.

706
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:32,580
I'm not using any other momentum
indicators. It's redundant.

707
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:37,780
Just use one, stick to one, and it would
be enough.

708
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:45,000
So look at how it goes to the center
line and then rebounds exactly off it.

709
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:51,720
So this could be just a short -term
technical rally, and that's how the

710
00:57:51,720 --> 00:57:52,720
would behave.

711
00:57:53,580 --> 00:58:00,220
around that, so look at, let's say,
something like this, something like

712
00:58:00,220 --> 00:58:02,240
this, this, this.

713
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:07,720
So there's some kind of momentum, let's
say, going into the latest rally, and

714
00:58:07,720 --> 00:58:14,100
then on the reaction, we're seeing that
once it touches the central line, it

715
00:58:14,100 --> 00:58:19,340
recovers, so somewhere here, you know,
you could continue your campaign or add

716
00:58:19,340 --> 00:58:20,840
or establish a new position.

717
00:58:22,730 --> 00:58:25,590
All right, great, good questions, good
conversations.

718
00:58:27,130 --> 00:58:29,250
Let's go to the volume case studies.

719
00:58:29,550 --> 00:58:35,970
We're still studying how supply and
demand interact with each other, how

720
00:58:35,970 --> 00:58:38,330
and price interact with each other.

721
00:58:39,030 --> 00:58:40,030
Excuse me.

722
00:58:41,310 --> 00:58:47,450
And we've talked about different types
of supply absorption.

723
00:58:47,910 --> 00:58:50,770
We've talked about horizontal
absorption.

724
00:58:51,820 --> 00:58:57,440
or absorption through time, sometimes I
call this. So this absorption is going

725
00:58:57,440 --> 00:59:00,700
to be observed by ours through different
phases.

726
00:59:02,500 --> 00:59:09,440
And usually the predominant supply
signature is going to be of the

727
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:12,340
supply going into phase C.

728
00:59:14,120 --> 00:59:20,800
And then we could have different
variations on this.

729
00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:27,940
vertical absorption we said that could
uh take you know different paths uh we

730
00:59:27,940 --> 00:59:34,900
could see and we've studied the kind of
like a vertical absorption on the way up

731
00:59:34,900 --> 00:59:41,140
which is more aggressive where we had a
reaction in the direction of the main

732
00:59:41,140 --> 00:59:48,020
bias so main bias here is to the upside
then

733
00:59:48,020 --> 00:59:49,560
we have a reaction

734
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:56,520
And this reaction has elements of
increasing supply.

735
00:59:57,560 --> 01:00:04,420
So here we've talked about how on the
way down, not only supply but demand is

736
01:00:04,420 --> 01:00:10,880
going to increase and that's going to
produce absorption on the way down.

737
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:17,600
And then we said that after that,

738
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:22,360
demand is going to increase even more.

739
01:00:24,520 --> 01:00:31,160
And when demand is going to increase
even more, the price is going to go up

740
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:36,120
the increased momentum and it's going to
come to the point of the resistance.

741
01:00:39,340 --> 01:00:45,860
Okay, so I want you to remember this
because we're going to come back to this

742
01:00:45,860 --> 01:00:48,480
thought. Price is going to go up.

743
01:00:48,880 --> 01:00:52,260
with increased momentum to the
resistance.

744
01:00:52,580 --> 01:00:57,080
And then, after that, it's gonna have
some kind of test.

745
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:03,820
Well, for, how would it look?

746
01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:10,460
It would look something like this, where
we have such a big move to the upside,

747
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:15,940
and then it comes to the level of the
resistance, and then it's just gonna

748
01:01:15,940 --> 01:01:16,940
right here.

749
01:01:18,800 --> 01:01:23,800
So that's one of the elements of
vertical absorption that we've studied.

750
01:01:24,160 --> 01:01:28,700
So today, I want to talk about feather.

751
01:01:30,300 --> 01:01:37,140
And feather was mentioned by, I believe
by SMI,

752
01:01:37,180 --> 01:01:44,140
not Wyckoff himself, but by SMI. And
then, actually that was in the original

753
01:01:44,140 --> 01:01:47,220
course. Yeah, I think that was in the
1930.

754
01:01:49,330 --> 01:01:55,930
There was a reference to a feather
there. And that reference was that the

755
01:01:55,930 --> 01:02:01,290
price was kind of like hovering around
resistance of the support with

756
01:02:01,290 --> 01:02:05,430
diminishing both supply and demand
signature.

757
01:02:06,290 --> 01:02:12,930
And that produced the condition where on
the next leg up, let's say,

758
01:02:14,330 --> 01:02:15,610
momentum has increased.

759
01:02:15,890 --> 01:02:21,730
And let me just kind of like jump into
this, but before we do that, this yellow

760
01:02:21,730 --> 01:02:26,230
highlighted area, think about what I've
just said.

761
01:02:26,730 --> 01:02:33,070
As demand increases and momentum
increases, the price goes up on the

762
01:02:33,070 --> 01:02:36,170
momentum to the resistance and then
produces a test.

763
01:02:36,910 --> 01:02:38,750
Does this remind you of anything?

764
01:02:39,810 --> 01:02:43,490
What about the chart that we've just
studied?

765
01:02:49,070 --> 01:02:53,610
We definitely don't have a bullish bias
before.

766
01:02:53,890 --> 01:02:59,290
We have a trading range here, so non
-trending environment.

767
01:02:59,810 --> 01:03:05,610
Then we have an increased supply
signature that produces this reaction.

768
01:03:06,630 --> 01:03:13,070
And out of this reaction, we see that
there is absorption on the way down, but

769
01:03:13,070 --> 01:03:16,810
then there is absorption on the way up
as well.

770
01:03:19,340 --> 01:03:24,780
And the rally usually is going to come
to the area of the resistance. So we are

771
01:03:24,780 --> 01:03:30,540
right there. This is resistance number
one, number two, number three.

772
01:03:34,660 --> 01:03:39,460
So we are close to that zone. We are on
the border of this zone.

773
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:43,460
And that's why I'm thinking, you know,
what is going to happen here? Are we

774
01:03:43,460 --> 01:03:46,780
going to have like a trading range right
here and then we're going to go up or

775
01:03:46,780 --> 01:03:50,080
are we just going to kind of like...
spraying up like this.

776
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:56,100
And I think it's, again, it's all going
to be related to China and how the talks

777
01:03:56,100 --> 01:03:57,100
are going to unfold.

778
01:03:57,240 --> 01:03:59,980
But it reminds me of that vertical
absorption.

779
01:04:00,200 --> 01:04:01,700
This is what has happened here.

780
01:04:02,060 --> 01:04:06,880
There is an absorption on the way up and
it's vertical because there is no

781
01:04:06,880 --> 01:04:08,000
trading range here.

782
01:04:08,500 --> 01:04:13,300
I mean, there is, but it's not that big.
It's not the absorption that we have

783
01:04:13,300 --> 01:04:16,040
through the trading range that we've had
in April, May.

784
01:04:16,500 --> 01:04:17,500
It's more.

785
01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:19,680
on the way down and then on the way up.

786
01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:25,060
And that's how the V bottoms are being
created. There is so much value here on

787
01:04:25,060 --> 01:04:27,840
the way down and there is still so much
value on the way up.

788
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:34,020
And again, please note where the
momentum signature has stopped.

789
01:04:34,920 --> 01:04:36,680
Why did they stop buying here?

790
01:04:36,900 --> 01:04:43,800
Well, if this was the previous value,
then everything here is under value

791
01:04:43,800 --> 01:04:47,040
and still under value.

792
01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:48,700
even on the way up.

793
01:04:49,660 --> 01:04:54,500
Until it hits this area right here, this
is institutional undervalue.

794
01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:58,700
So they are buying on the way down, they
are buying on the way up, and then they

795
01:04:58,700 --> 01:04:59,700
stop buying.

796
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:07,220
Once institutions stop buying, how are
we going to see that on the price and

797
01:05:07,220 --> 01:05:08,019
volume signature?

798
01:05:08,020 --> 01:05:10,500
Well, the volume signature is going to
be gradually declining.

799
01:05:11,980 --> 01:05:17,860
The price is going to also deteriorate,
right? So we're going to see a

800
01:05:17,860 --> 01:05:24,220
deteriorating result to the upside, even
though it's still a bias to the upside,

801
01:05:24,380 --> 01:05:26,040
even though the price still goes up.

802
01:05:26,420 --> 01:05:30,040
You know, coming back to Doug's
question, you know, could we have a

803
01:05:30,040 --> 01:05:33,820
result in the up rally? That's exactly
what we have right here.

804
01:05:34,060 --> 01:05:40,860
And once they stop buying and they're
inactive, you know, we're going to see

805
01:05:40,860 --> 01:05:41,860
this also in the momentum.

806
01:05:42,730 --> 01:05:46,810
So momentum is showing this, volume is
showing this, price is showing this.

807
01:05:47,070 --> 01:05:53,650
We could interpret this as diminishing
interest by institutions at this point

808
01:05:53,650 --> 01:05:59,270
value, but still it goes up just because
no one is selling.

809
01:05:59,750 --> 01:06:04,630
They got in and they're not selling.
Why? Well, because this is not their

810
01:06:04,630 --> 01:06:05,630
typical behavior.

811
01:06:05,910 --> 01:06:09,830
They are gonna be, they're gonna be,

812
01:06:11,100 --> 01:06:16,780
thinking here more about they're already
in the position and how to protect

813
01:06:16,780 --> 01:06:17,820
their portfolio.

814
01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:20,120
Okay.

815
01:06:23,380 --> 01:06:28,460
I don't know, we're definitely on fire
today with all of the side note topics.

816
01:06:29,640 --> 01:06:31,560
Let's come back to the feather.

817
01:06:31,860 --> 01:06:34,820
So here is the feather, right?

818
01:06:35,740 --> 01:06:38,840
And this feather is in a free fall.

819
01:06:40,170 --> 01:06:41,170
What does it mean?

820
01:06:41,450 --> 01:06:46,950
Well, you guys remember, right? You know
how the feather flies down, how it

821
01:06:46,950 --> 01:06:53,770
falls. It's kind of very slow and
gradual, and usually it's just going to

822
01:06:53,770 --> 01:07:00,430
of like go from one side to another side
and have those swinging type of

823
01:07:00,430 --> 01:07:07,230
moves, and slowly and softly it will
land

824
01:07:07,230 --> 01:07:08,230
on the ground.

825
01:07:09,710 --> 01:07:16,370
And if we would be thinking in terms of
feather in the

826
01:07:16,370 --> 01:07:21,310
market, this type of action, we probably
would be saying that there is no

827
01:07:21,310 --> 01:07:28,190
increased effort or pressure that is
being applied to a feather. And

828
01:07:28,190 --> 01:07:31,530
that's why it falls down on its own
weight.

829
01:07:32,270 --> 01:07:36,670
And it falls down smoothly and slowly.

830
01:07:37,420 --> 01:07:38,840
And there is no increased result.

831
01:07:39,080 --> 01:07:43,320
I mean, we're definitely going to hit
the ground with the feather because it

832
01:07:43,320 --> 01:07:50,280
still has more weight than the air,
right? So the gravity is going

833
01:07:50,280 --> 01:07:56,180
to pull down unless there is some kind
of distortion with the wind and so on

834
01:07:56,180 --> 01:07:57,180
so forth.

835
01:07:57,500 --> 01:08:03,160
But if the conditions are such that
there is no wind, the feather is not

836
01:08:03,160 --> 01:08:04,560
to have increased effort.

837
01:08:05,150 --> 01:08:08,850
to move down or to move to the side or
to move up again.

838
01:08:09,270 --> 01:08:11,910
It's also not going to have increased
result.

839
01:08:13,230 --> 01:08:17,910
It's just going to gradually kind of
like go down, down, down.

840
01:08:18,130 --> 01:08:22,710
There might be some slight increase in
the result, you know, if we go into the

841
01:08:22,710 --> 01:08:24,050
whole physics of this thing.

842
01:08:24,710 --> 01:08:30,290
I'm not quite sure, but to me, just on
the conceptual level, this is just a

843
01:08:30,290 --> 01:08:32,950
fall movement without interruption.

844
01:08:34,000 --> 01:08:39,960
And we could see in the market some
places like this where, let's say, in

845
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:44,800
place right here, we see how the price
had initial momentum.

846
01:08:49,020 --> 01:08:54,779
And then after that, the price goes
down, goes up, goes down, goes up, goes

847
01:08:54,779 --> 01:08:57,260
down, goes up, goes down, goes up.

848
01:08:58,279 --> 01:09:01,359
And this movement is...

849
01:09:02,750 --> 01:09:09,109
reminding me of a feather. We are close
to the breakdown. We are moving to the

850
01:09:09,109 --> 01:09:14,729
downside. So result is there,

851
01:09:15,029 --> 01:09:20,970
but not dramatic.

852
01:09:26,729 --> 01:09:31,689
And then think about if we add more
force.

853
01:09:33,260 --> 01:09:38,580
to push the price down, what should
happen? So in the feather

854
01:09:38,580 --> 01:09:45,340
story here, we're gonna say that if
we're gonna

855
01:09:45,340 --> 01:09:51,200
put a small stone on the feather,
somewhere like on the top right here,

856
01:09:51,380 --> 01:09:58,260
so we are basically increasing the
effort to push the feather down or to

857
01:09:58,260 --> 01:09:59,260
push the price down.

858
01:09:59,620 --> 01:10:01,660
What should happen with that?

859
01:10:02,060 --> 01:10:04,140
Well, definitely momentum is going to
increase.

860
01:10:04,360 --> 01:10:07,260
With the momentum increase, we're going
to have the velocity increase.

861
01:10:07,480 --> 01:10:11,220
And with all of that, we're going to
have the increase in the result. So how

862
01:10:11,220 --> 01:10:16,880
would that look on the chart?

863
01:10:17,240 --> 01:10:22,560
Well, it's going to look as if out of
this feather

864
01:10:22,560 --> 01:10:28,720
Tragen range, once the increased effort
was introduced,

865
01:10:29,220 --> 01:10:31,100
the price is going to just...

866
01:10:31,970 --> 01:10:33,830
run down much faster.

867
01:10:34,690 --> 01:10:40,910
And that effort is gonna be shown to us
in the volume signature, or rather than

868
01:10:40,910 --> 01:10:43,070
the change in the volume signature.

869
01:10:43,470 --> 01:10:45,110
So volume change,

870
01:10:46,050 --> 01:10:47,570
effort change.

871
01:10:49,850 --> 01:10:54,890
As this happens, then we're gonna see
price change.

872
01:10:59,130 --> 01:11:04,020
Okay, so let's Look at this just on the
charts, and let's talk about the

873
01:11:04,020 --> 01:11:05,060
characteristics and definition.

874
01:11:05,460 --> 01:11:10,800
So a feather is a part of the
springboard heuristic that identifies a

875
01:11:10,800 --> 01:11:16,480
significant lack of counter effort and
counter result, resolves itself in the

876
01:11:16,480 --> 01:11:17,480
momentum breakout.

877
01:11:17,660 --> 01:11:19,260
Let's look at the bullish feather.

878
01:11:20,340 --> 01:11:23,520
We have an established bias to the
upside.

879
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:28,080
That long -term bias is to the upside.

880
01:11:30,250 --> 01:11:31,910
And this is the Apple daily chart.

881
01:11:32,130 --> 01:11:36,970
Then we have a counter reaction to that.

882
01:11:37,950 --> 01:11:38,950
Counter move.

883
01:11:42,710 --> 01:11:47,530
This counter move is going to be
associated with the supply signature

884
01:11:47,530 --> 01:11:54,470
could see here in the stop in action, in
the sell in, and then still on the way

885
01:11:54,470 --> 01:11:57,010
down, kind of like a general
capitulation here.

886
01:11:57,270 --> 01:11:58,970
So supply is going to increase.

887
01:11:59,950 --> 01:12:04,570
Then after that, what's going to be
interesting is that we're going to see

888
01:12:04,570 --> 01:12:10,590
higher highs, higher lows for the
bullish feather.

889
01:12:11,010 --> 01:12:16,830
So here they are, higher high, higher
low, relative to this.

890
01:12:17,490 --> 01:12:23,430
Higher high, higher low, higher highs,
higher lows.

891
01:12:23,930 --> 01:12:25,990
But look at the nature.

892
01:12:26,570 --> 01:12:31,250
with which these higher highs and higher
lows are being formed.

893
01:12:33,050 --> 01:12:38,850
We've seen a deterioration of the

894
01:12:38,850 --> 01:12:45,850
effort that pushes

895
01:12:45,850 --> 01:12:47,090
that price up.

896
01:12:47,330 --> 01:12:51,830
I mean obviously this segment right here
has some momentum, yes that's true, but

897
01:12:51,830 --> 01:12:55,490
then after that, both supply and demand
are somewhat

898
01:12:56,650 --> 01:13:00,350
Definitely not negligent, but not that
active.

899
01:13:01,050 --> 01:13:07,590
And we are thinking that demand is

900
01:13:07,590 --> 01:13:11,390
diminishing and that supply is poor.

901
01:13:11,990 --> 01:13:17,050
And that's the whole situation. And even
with that, we're still making higher

902
01:13:17,050 --> 01:13:19,010
highs and higher lows.

903
01:13:19,290 --> 01:13:22,450
So in a way, a feather...

904
01:13:25,130 --> 01:13:26,910
is an ease of movement.

905
01:13:27,990 --> 01:13:34,650
And because we're making higher highs
and higher lows, feather becomes a

906
01:13:34,650 --> 01:13:38,250
part of the vertical absorption family.

907
01:13:41,870 --> 01:13:47,970
And then obviously, once we come to the
level of the resistance,

908
01:13:50,920 --> 01:13:55,080
This is where the behavior of those
institutions is going to change.

909
01:13:56,100 --> 01:14:03,040
And this is where they're going to say,
well, even with that small effort to

910
01:14:03,040 --> 01:14:08,440
the upside, diminishing effort to the
upside, the price gives me an absolute

911
01:14:08,440 --> 01:14:13,460
performance that I need. It goes up. It
doesn't go down.

912
01:14:13,780 --> 01:14:15,540
So I might buy more.

913
01:14:15,780 --> 01:14:19,140
They might be buying more on...

914
01:14:19,530 --> 01:14:21,150
some kind of catalyst.

915
01:14:23,230 --> 01:14:27,410
Maybe they are waiting for this catalyst
and that's what creates this type of

916
01:14:27,410 --> 01:14:28,450
movement right here.

917
01:14:29,290 --> 01:14:34,230
Anticipation, but it's more with the
bullish bias built in into the price

918
01:14:34,230 --> 01:14:35,230
action.

919
01:14:35,590 --> 01:14:40,590
And then when this catalyst happens,
they add more effort and that pushes the

920
01:14:40,590 --> 01:14:43,510
price up with a lot of momentum.

921
01:14:43,770 --> 01:14:47,090
So we're seeing a lot of momentum here.

922
01:14:48,250 --> 01:14:54,070
And then after such momentum, there is
usually a continuation to the upside.

923
01:14:55,810 --> 01:14:58,430
Okay, then let's look at the bearish
feather.

924
01:14:58,710 --> 01:15:04,050
Kind of the same concept, right? So, and
we could look into maybe like feather

925
01:15:04,050 --> 01:15:10,790
as being this whole thing, right? So
we're making lower lows, lower

926
01:15:10,790 --> 01:15:16,530
highs in this area, or in a smaller area
right here.

927
01:15:17,130 --> 01:15:18,930
A major bias to the downside.

928
01:15:23,490 --> 01:15:25,050
A counter move.

929
01:15:29,130 --> 01:15:34,070
And I would prefer here to have more
demand signature, but there it was.

930
01:15:34,350 --> 01:15:37,210
There was an increase in the demand
signature right here.

931
01:15:38,410 --> 01:15:40,390
And then after that,

932
01:15:41,850 --> 01:15:44,570
there is a move to the level of the
support.

933
01:15:44,810 --> 01:15:48,390
Please notice for bearish feathers,
there's gonna be support.

934
01:15:48,610 --> 01:15:51,030
For bullish feather, there's gonna be a
resistance.

935
01:15:53,210 --> 01:15:57,170
And we are kind of hovering around this
area.

936
01:15:57,570 --> 01:16:04,170
We're still making slightly lower highs
and lower lows on a very short -term

937
01:16:04,170 --> 01:16:07,350
basis. And once we are

938
01:16:10,160 --> 01:16:16,500
Once the force is going to be
introduced, and we're going to say that

939
01:16:16,500 --> 01:16:22,260
those people who bought in, and they
were buyers in the

940
01:16:22,260 --> 01:16:27,540
bearish feather situation, they're going
to give up at some point. They're going

941
01:16:27,540 --> 01:16:28,540
to capitulate.

942
01:16:28,660 --> 01:16:34,780
And this capitulation after the feather
is going to produce increased volume

943
01:16:34,780 --> 01:16:35,780
signature.

944
01:16:37,610 --> 01:16:41,070
increased momentum, increased velocity
to the downside.

945
01:16:41,350 --> 01:16:47,590
And then obviously the price is going to
react also a lot to the downside.

946
01:16:48,390 --> 01:16:52,590
I'm going to have all of this increased
result to the downside characteristics.

947
01:16:58,430 --> 01:16:59,430
All right.

948
01:17:04,270 --> 01:17:09,150
I'm thinking about what I've missed
here, you know, any substantial pieces

949
01:17:09,150 --> 01:17:11,430
I might have missed. So let's just think
together.

950
01:17:11,790 --> 01:17:16,810
What are the questions? What are the
comments? Because this is not an easy

951
01:17:16,810 --> 01:17:23,490
concept. It looks easy, but sometimes I
feel like even I myself am not

952
01:17:23,490 --> 01:17:26,390
identifying it correctly with a lot of
consistency.

953
01:17:27,280 --> 01:17:31,060
And the reason why is because sometimes
the volume signature is going to

954
01:17:31,060 --> 01:17:35,080
increase and it's not going to look like
feather because there is like a lot of

955
01:17:35,080 --> 01:17:36,320
increase in the volume signature.

956
01:17:36,520 --> 01:17:42,560
So we usually talk about the feather as
something being light as a feather.

957
01:17:43,180 --> 01:17:48,160
And it still moves the price down. So
that ease of movement type of thing.

958
01:17:49,900 --> 01:17:53,140
Okay, so some comments patterns.

959
01:17:59,449 --> 01:18:01,790
Okay, Adam, I'll have to look into that.

960
01:18:03,310 --> 01:18:07,790
From Nilesh, how should we trade further
to initiate the position?

961
01:18:08,010 --> 01:18:09,010
Okay, very good question.

962
01:18:10,210 --> 01:18:16,830
So let's develop, you know, maybe like
different scenarios, right? So our

963
01:18:16,830 --> 01:18:23,330
position here in Apple, and this was
2015 -16 trading range, so you're going

964
01:18:23,330 --> 01:18:26,410
identify this high as a major sign of
strength.

965
01:18:27,100 --> 01:18:31,440
point number one as a backing up action
going into point number five so this is

966
01:18:31,440 --> 01:18:36,500
just a trading range of the backing up
action here so how would we be thinking

967
01:18:36,500 --> 01:18:39,860
about opening the position because of
the first reaction and the increased

968
01:18:39,860 --> 01:18:46,800
supply on the backing up action we might
be thinking about uh establishing the

969
01:18:46,800 --> 01:18:51,580
position at point number two on the
reversal so somewhere here this could be

970
01:18:51,580 --> 01:18:52,800
point of entry number one

971
01:18:54,120 --> 01:18:58,740
then looking at the feather itself, and
I think this is the value of that

972
01:18:58,740 --> 01:19:00,060
question, how do we trade it?

973
01:19:00,660 --> 01:19:06,940
If we understand that feather by itself
is a test of supply

974
01:19:06,940 --> 01:19:11,580
at the resistance level,

975
01:19:11,820 --> 01:19:17,160
then we know that we could buy the test.

976
01:19:19,420 --> 01:19:23,040
So we could find some spots to buy here.

977
01:19:23,420 --> 01:19:25,060
One, two.

978
01:19:26,180 --> 01:19:32,020
And then if we're thinking about what
should happen next, if there's going to

979
01:19:32,020 --> 01:19:38,220
a late capitulation of short traders in
a bullish feather and they're just going

980
01:19:38,220 --> 01:19:44,680
to capitulate, let's say, on the
catalyst or on the breakout, all of the

981
01:19:44,680 --> 01:19:49,880
that they're going to provide is going
to become a market order to buy.

982
01:19:51,050 --> 01:19:54,690
and therefore supply is going to absorb
even more.

983
01:20:08,150 --> 01:20:14,290
More. If that's the case, If there is
more supply that has been observed, and

984
01:20:14,290 --> 01:20:18,810
not only at the lower price levels, but
at the higher price level, what do you

985
01:20:18,810 --> 01:20:22,450
think is going to be a long -term bias
to this?

986
01:20:22,750 --> 01:20:25,030
Most likely it's going to continue,
right?

987
01:20:25,390 --> 01:20:26,390
Continuation.

988
01:20:28,070 --> 01:20:32,850
And if the long -term bias is a
continuation, then think about a point

989
01:20:33,070 --> 01:20:38,150
Could we think about a point of entry
right here in terms of...

990
01:20:38,640 --> 01:20:39,700
add into the position.

991
01:20:39,960 --> 01:20:44,500
And I think we can because let's say on
this catalyst, on this momentum

992
01:20:44,500 --> 01:20:47,760
catalyst, we are also going to have a
test.

993
01:20:48,360 --> 01:20:53,960
And that test usually comes within the
next two days. By the way, it was really

994
01:20:53,960 --> 01:21:00,160
interesting how we talked about this in
this course, right?

995
01:21:00,400 --> 01:21:04,140
Big momentum push on a lot of volume was
the gap.

996
01:21:04,640 --> 01:21:06,160
usually on catalyst earnings.

997
01:21:06,420 --> 01:21:09,540
And then the next two days, we want to
look at the test.

998
01:21:10,640 --> 01:21:16,520
And Linda was talking about the same
pattern. And she considers this one of

999
01:21:16,520 --> 01:21:22,920
most reliable patterns. If your test is
successful, if you don't have the bodies

1000
01:21:22,920 --> 01:21:29,580
or the tails of the testing days
violating the low

1001
01:21:29,580 --> 01:21:35,620
of the gap day, and they don't go too
much into the gap, most likely there's

1002
01:21:35,620 --> 01:21:36,900
going to be some kind of continuation.

1003
01:21:37,240 --> 01:21:42,500
And look how nicely, you know, you would
have this straight from 125 to the

1004
01:21:42,500 --> 01:21:49,240
first change of character bar to 147, so
that's 20 bucks, or

1005
01:21:49,240 --> 01:21:55,760
it's going to translate into what, about
18 % move, something like that,

1006
01:21:55,840 --> 01:22:02,160
around maybe 18, 20%. And then you're
making this 20 %

1007
01:22:02,160 --> 01:22:06,200
in... one, two, three, three and a half
months.

1008
01:22:09,320 --> 01:22:13,820
So you have to think in three and a half
months, 20 % annualized, it's going to

1009
01:22:13,820 --> 01:22:14,599
be different.

1010
01:22:14,600 --> 01:22:18,720
So this is a good swing trade. And
especially if you've been entering this

1011
01:22:18,720 --> 01:22:24,420
position before, you know, like at point
number one, two, three, and four. So

1012
01:22:24,420 --> 01:22:28,380
you could potentially scale in into the
position.

1013
01:22:29,390 --> 01:22:36,230
And look how nicely it's just on the
edges of short -term

1014
01:22:36,230 --> 01:22:38,230
oversold conditions. What do I mean by
that?

1015
01:22:39,810 --> 01:22:43,590
I believe this was below, yes.

1016
01:22:44,970 --> 01:22:46,190
So look at this.

1017
01:22:48,190 --> 01:22:54,190
All of our entries are clearly close to
the

1018
01:22:54,190 --> 01:22:55,430
oversold.

1019
01:22:57,610 --> 01:23:00,010
except for the momentum breakout right
here.

1020
01:23:00,310 --> 01:23:06,610
But the momentum breakout entry is going
to suggest a strength of the

1021
01:23:06,610 --> 01:23:12,250
continuation. So therefore, we're still
relatively in the not such a risky

1022
01:23:12,250 --> 01:23:13,250
place.

1023
01:23:14,390 --> 01:23:15,930
All right, so what else?

1024
01:23:17,230 --> 01:23:20,990
Joe is asking, for the bearish feather,
where did the CO get out?

1025
01:23:22,250 --> 01:23:25,570
Well, CO got out in many spots, Joe.

1026
01:23:27,260 --> 01:23:33,560
we're talking about a late institutional
capitulation here so and by the way ceo

1027
01:23:33,560 --> 01:23:38,340
could be getting out here as well and at
this point the ceo still has a

1028
01:23:38,340 --> 01:23:42,880
profitable position that's number one
and secondly we cannot call it ceo

1029
01:23:42,880 --> 01:23:47,600
because we would be thinking that ceo is
going to distribute the stock at the

1030
01:23:47,600 --> 01:23:54,200
higher level so maybe somewhere here
where ceo is distributing off

1031
01:23:54,200 --> 01:23:55,460
the top

1032
01:23:57,410 --> 01:24:02,870
Maybe here on the way up, on the way up,
on the way down. So this is CO.

1033
01:24:03,810 --> 01:24:09,390
And then the rest is just institutional
trend followers that are gonna

1034
01:24:09,390 --> 01:24:10,490
capitulate here.

1035
01:24:10,750 --> 01:24:15,510
So this is early institutional
capitulation.

1036
01:24:16,310 --> 01:24:20,410
So this is smartest money.

1037
01:24:26,030 --> 01:24:32,930
this is smart money why is it smart well
because they get

1038
01:24:32,930 --> 01:24:38,690
out at the last opportunity before the
collapse uh and therefore they give

1039
01:24:38,690 --> 01:24:43,770
themselves an opportunity you know to
still stay in the position if this is

1040
01:24:43,770 --> 01:24:47,810
going to be a reaccumulation and then
the late capitulation is just going to

1041
01:24:47,810 --> 01:24:54,550
not as smart right not as

1042
01:24:54,550 --> 01:25:00,350
smart And I don't necessarily kind of
like this definition, you know, smart or

1043
01:25:00,350 --> 01:25:07,310
not smart. It's just a little bit, I
feel like some people could

1044
01:25:07,310 --> 01:25:13,270
look at this as a little bit, you know,
domain value, you know, for certain

1045
01:25:13,270 --> 01:25:18,430
types of market participants. But I know
that you guys understand what I'm

1046
01:25:18,430 --> 01:25:19,430
saying here.

1047
01:25:20,000 --> 01:25:25,000
So the smartness of the money depends on
where they get in, where they get out.

1048
01:25:25,100 --> 01:25:30,360
But at the same time, there are so many
different variations on how institutions

1049
01:25:30,360 --> 01:25:31,360
behave.

1050
01:25:32,140 --> 01:25:37,060
We don't even know completely what are
the motives, intentions of some of the

1051
01:25:37,060 --> 01:25:41,140
institutions being in the position that
is going down or shorting in the

1052
01:25:41,140 --> 01:25:46,500
position that is going up. What if they
have some kind of spread trade, right?

1053
01:25:46,700 --> 01:25:49,360
So meaning that they have...

1054
01:25:49,630 --> 01:25:51,670
two highly correlated stocks.

1055
01:25:52,250 --> 01:25:55,710
One of them they bought and another one
they sold.

1056
01:25:55,930 --> 01:26:00,310
And this could be here an example with
Goldman Sachs where somebody might be

1057
01:26:00,310 --> 01:26:06,490
buying Goldman Sachs and don't mind the
Goldman Sachs going down, but at the

1058
01:26:06,490 --> 01:26:12,830
same time selling another stock in the
same group because it just outperforms

1059
01:26:12,830 --> 01:26:13,830
the relative basis.

1060
01:26:15,770 --> 01:26:18,270
Obviously in this case it should be vice
versa.

1061
01:26:18,670 --> 01:26:25,410
This was actually a trade that I've
conducted back then, what, in 2018 in

1062
01:26:25,410 --> 01:26:26,410
Goldman Sachs.

1063
01:26:28,270 --> 01:26:30,690
Let me just capture this.

1064
01:26:31,790 --> 01:26:36,190
So the trade was conducted here.

1065
01:26:41,690 --> 01:26:46,030
The entry was somewhere here. I don't
remember exactly, but I remember that it

1066
01:26:46,030 --> 01:26:47,090
was before the break.

1067
01:26:48,620 --> 01:26:55,420
And I was consulting an institution at
the time, so the trade was

1068
01:26:55,420 --> 01:26:56,860
done with that institution.

1069
01:26:57,880 --> 01:27:03,220
And it was a profitable trade, but it
was executed incorrectly.

1070
01:27:04,460 --> 01:27:08,480
What do I mean by that? I mean,
obviously selection was correct. The

1071
01:27:08,480 --> 01:27:09,480
entry was correct.

1072
01:27:12,880 --> 01:27:14,940
Check. Point of entry.

1073
01:27:15,740 --> 01:27:22,720
Check. We used the, I think it was
actually a cash position, so

1074
01:27:22,720 --> 01:27:29,660
they were boring, and this was a good
stock to

1075
01:27:29,660 --> 01:27:35,260
borrow because this stock usually has a
lot of liquidity, so a good

1076
01:27:35,260 --> 01:27:41,680
institutional, easy, what's the term
there,

1077
01:27:41,860 --> 01:27:43,880
easy collateral stock.

1078
01:27:47,180 --> 01:27:54,180
that could be used in this situation and
the exit from this trade was somewhere

1079
01:27:54,180 --> 01:28:00,460
i don't recall exactly i think in this
area here

1080
01:28:00,460 --> 01:28:04,860
or even earlier here

1081
01:28:05,740 --> 01:28:10,900
So we haven't even experienced a
terminal climactic action.

1082
01:28:11,240 --> 01:28:16,620
And I was kind of a little bit
disappointed how execution has been done

1083
01:28:16,620 --> 01:28:20,080
exit. I mean, obviously, for a small
swing, that's fine.

1084
01:28:20,560 --> 01:28:25,880
But the bias was still to the downside,
and we just experienced a major sign of

1085
01:28:25,880 --> 01:28:31,940
strength. So we had this first
capitulation that meant that there is

1086
01:28:31,940 --> 01:28:33,400
likely is going to be a continuation.

1087
01:28:34,330 --> 01:28:38,630
could have stayed in this trading range
and then continued to the downside.

1088
01:28:38,850 --> 01:28:40,610
I believe the stock went down after
that.

1089
01:28:41,950 --> 01:28:48,670
So execution and specifically exit on
the outside

1090
01:28:48,670 --> 01:28:49,990
was really poor.

1091
01:28:51,810 --> 01:28:58,750
So it's very interesting how you could
have

1092
01:28:58,750 --> 01:29:01,590
the knowledge, but you might not have
the skill.

1093
01:29:02,540 --> 01:29:08,160
You might develop the skill of visual
recognition on the chart of what you

1094
01:29:08,340 --> 01:29:11,580
but it doesn't mean that you could
execute correctly.

1095
01:29:12,480 --> 01:29:19,420
Even if you know how to execute
correctly, you might be bound by the

1096
01:29:19,420 --> 01:29:21,720
opportunities that is being given to
you.

1097
01:29:22,160 --> 01:29:28,140
I mean, obviously, the market in 2018 in
comparison to 2017 are two different

1098
01:29:28,140 --> 01:29:29,140
animals.

1099
01:29:29,870 --> 01:29:35,630
So opportunities in the market play,
availability of opportunities also play

1100
01:29:35,630 --> 01:29:36,608
big role.

1101
01:29:36,610 --> 01:29:42,250
And sometimes we don't learn how to
recognize this opportunity.

1102
01:29:42,930 --> 01:29:47,850
But even if you can recognize the
opportunity again, it doesn't mean that

1103
01:29:47,850 --> 01:29:53,290
mentally you might technically execute
it correctly, but mentally you might not

1104
01:29:53,290 --> 01:29:54,290
execute it correctly.

1105
01:29:54,750 --> 01:29:58,690
And even then, when you...

1106
01:29:59,240 --> 01:30:05,440
can go through all of those steps and
you are at the level of the advanced

1107
01:30:05,440 --> 01:30:09,540
understanding of not just trading but
yourself,

1108
01:30:09,920 --> 01:30:16,680
you still can fail to leverage this

1109
01:30:16,680 --> 01:30:17,680
opportunity.

1110
01:30:18,200 --> 01:30:23,280
And with advanced students, you know,
this is a common mistake.

1111
01:30:23,800 --> 01:30:28,560
Sometimes you see an opportunity, you
recognize, you have the knowledge and

1112
01:30:29,180 --> 01:30:36,180
skill to act on that, and then it
becomes a wasted opportunity because

1113
01:30:36,180 --> 01:30:43,080
it was not properly leveraged based on
the contextual risk that was

1114
01:30:43,080 --> 01:30:44,300
present at that time.

1115
01:30:45,400 --> 01:30:52,400
So it's a process, and this course is
just a first step in

1116
01:30:52,400 --> 01:30:53,400
this process.

1117
01:30:54,340 --> 01:30:59,600
And I'm still working myself on this.
Believe me, guys. I'm extremely honest

1118
01:30:59,600 --> 01:31:05,580
with all of you always because I believe
that if you're not honest with yourself

1119
01:31:05,580 --> 01:31:10,800
as a trader, you're most likely going to
fail. So you have to expose yourself.

1120
01:31:11,020 --> 01:31:12,020
You have to be vulnerable.

1121
01:31:12,220 --> 01:31:18,440
You have to be uncomfortable constantly
in order for you to adjust. Always make

1122
01:31:18,440 --> 01:31:19,440
that adjustment.

1123
01:31:20,080 --> 01:31:22,060
And then only that.

1124
01:31:22,670 --> 01:31:24,290
will bring you to the next level.

1125
01:31:26,810 --> 01:31:32,870
So that was kind of like my disappointed
on the actions of that hedge fund at

1126
01:31:32,870 --> 01:31:33,870
that time.

1127
01:31:34,370 --> 01:31:35,410
Okay, so.

1128
01:31:44,870 --> 01:31:50,250
Okay, now I should say in Apple chart,
the upward movement from February to

1129
01:31:50,250 --> 01:31:55,490
April also looks like a feather. If no,
is it because it's forming after leaving

1130
01:31:55,490 --> 01:31:56,490
the trading range?

1131
01:31:58,510 --> 01:31:59,610
February, April.

1132
01:32:05,330 --> 01:32:10,170
I see this one right here. Well, we have
to have some kind of reference to the,

1133
01:32:10,330 --> 01:32:15,550
obviously the resistance, and there is a
long -term resistance here for Apple

1134
01:32:15,550 --> 01:32:16,550
that we've seen.

1135
01:32:18,250 --> 01:32:23,250
you know, off the 2015 high, I believe.

1136
01:32:24,410 --> 01:32:25,410
Yes.

1137
01:32:26,470 --> 01:32:30,330
So you could think that, yeah, the price
kind of like does this. I would

1138
01:32:30,330 --> 01:32:32,910
probably go to the weekly chart just to
confirm that.

1139
01:32:34,510 --> 01:32:39,130
I would say that this is just like an
uptrend.

1140
01:32:41,110 --> 01:32:45,390
It's more established. There is no
grinding into the resistance area.

1141
01:32:46,080 --> 01:32:48,880
It's more of a freer move to the upside.

1142
01:32:49,340 --> 01:32:55,900
So probably just based on that, maybe I
would not exactly say this, but

1143
01:32:55,900 --> 01:33:01,740
if you see it like that, that's totally
fine.

1144
01:33:02,320 --> 01:33:08,820
What are the consequences of that? Well,
we need to see some kind of momentum

1145
01:33:08,820 --> 01:33:13,440
move. Well, here it is. It comes on the
breakout, so that seems to be in

1146
01:33:13,440 --> 01:33:14,980
compliance. But again,

1147
01:33:16,279 --> 01:33:21,140
something where the bias is established
and you have a big counter move first.

1148
01:33:21,600 --> 01:33:23,960
And then you have this vertical
absorption.

1149
01:33:25,040 --> 01:33:27,980
Here, what is the long -term bias up?

1150
01:33:28,200 --> 01:33:29,420
Was there a counter move?

1151
01:33:29,700 --> 01:33:30,880
Not necessarily.

1152
01:33:32,240 --> 01:33:34,760
So from that perspective, maybe not.

1153
01:33:38,360 --> 01:33:42,820
Okay, Doug. Yeah, we'll talk about this
maybe later on.

1154
01:33:44,430 --> 01:33:47,050
You know, I'll have to have more
examples of this.

1155
01:33:48,270 --> 01:33:50,490
All right, great. Let's go to the next
one.

1156
01:33:51,930 --> 01:33:54,930
Okay, well, 20 to 5.

1157
01:33:56,090 --> 01:34:00,450
Let's talk about urgent demand. That's
another volume case study that we have.

1158
01:34:02,350 --> 01:34:06,650
So usually demand, and we've talked
about the ice cream story.

1159
01:34:07,010 --> 01:34:11,210
So demand usually is not going to be
extremely pronounced.

1160
01:34:12,799 --> 01:34:14,760
after the absorption of the supply.

1161
01:34:15,020 --> 01:34:21,140
Why? Well, because think about what
happens with the absorption, let's say,

1162
01:34:21,140 --> 01:34:22,480
the selling climax.

1163
01:34:22,720 --> 01:34:26,520
So demand increases a lot here.

1164
01:34:27,360 --> 01:34:29,200
Supply increases as well.

1165
01:34:29,840 --> 01:34:36,260
So that stops the price from moving
down. On the automatic rally, demand is

1166
01:34:36,260 --> 01:34:37,260
still increasing.

1167
01:34:37,420 --> 01:34:38,920
Supply is decreasing.

1168
01:34:39,580 --> 01:34:46,350
On the secondary test, supply is
increasing relative to what we've seen

1169
01:34:46,350 --> 01:34:47,950
latest rally right here.

1170
01:34:48,470 --> 01:34:52,670
But decreases, so increases short term,
decreases long term.

1171
01:34:54,330 --> 01:35:00,790
And then at the same time, demand is
increasing short term.

1172
01:35:00,950 --> 01:35:05,090
So there are some buyers that are coming
in and getting some value at the low.

1173
01:35:05,450 --> 01:35:10,030
But at the same time, demand is lower
than it was on

1174
01:35:10,920 --> 01:35:13,940
selling climax and automatic rally.

1175
01:35:15,620 --> 01:35:21,760
Then we go into phase B, same happens
again, demand is diminishing,

1176
01:35:22,020 --> 01:35:28,960
supply is diminishing, locally supply is
increasing, demand is

1177
01:35:28,960 --> 01:35:33,580
increasing, that pushes the price up
again, and then demand is decreasing

1178
01:35:33,580 --> 01:35:36,580
more, and that pushes the price into a
spring.

1179
01:35:38,730 --> 01:35:43,970
At this spring, supply is increasing,
demand is increasing even more. That's

1180
01:35:43,970 --> 01:35:45,830
absorption on the way down.

1181
01:35:48,330 --> 01:35:55,130
And then after that, in phase D, demand
could either

1182
01:35:55,130 --> 01:35:58,550
be low and the price still will go up.

1183
01:36:00,070 --> 01:36:06,310
And that is a function of how supply has
been gradually diminishing.

1184
01:36:08,140 --> 01:36:11,520
throughout all of these areas right
here.

1185
01:36:12,840 --> 01:36:19,740
So sometimes supply has been absorbed,
supply is absorbed at

1186
01:36:19,740 --> 01:36:26,520
this point so much that even dimension
demand could push the price up.

1187
01:36:26,760 --> 01:36:30,340
But in some cases, that picture is going
to be different.

1188
01:36:31,020 --> 01:36:37,340
In some cases, we're going to have a lot
of inactivity throughout the whole

1189
01:36:37,340 --> 01:36:43,320
structure so apple here shows that uh
for uh what about nine months or so

1190
01:36:43,320 --> 01:36:49,080
we with we see um in institutional
inactivity

1191
01:36:49,080 --> 01:36:55,960
and there is a reason for that

1192
01:36:55,960 --> 01:36:59,500
there is a long -term reason for that
and that long -term reason you will have

1193
01:36:59,500 --> 01:37:01,940
to look at the chart since 2001

1194
01:37:03,019 --> 01:37:08,620
and just to kind of see what that reason
is on the long -term chart. But on a

1195
01:37:08,620 --> 01:37:12,740
short -term chart here, we're seeing how
institutions are buying here,

1196
01:37:12,940 --> 01:37:14,360
institutions are buying here.

1197
01:37:14,640 --> 01:37:16,840
All of this is on the way down.

1198
01:37:17,600 --> 01:37:19,920
There is no buying whatsoever,

1199
01:37:20,740 --> 01:37:27,700
at least of the consistent institutional
buying, until we probably come

1200
01:37:27,700 --> 01:37:30,000
to this area right here.

1201
01:37:30,510 --> 01:37:35,110
and we've seen that there is a stop in
demand that comes in at this point, and

1202
01:37:35,110 --> 01:37:39,590
as the price tries to commit into the
spring action, there is one close below

1203
01:37:39,590 --> 01:37:40,650
that support level.

1204
01:37:41,250 --> 01:37:46,790
We see how the volume signature has
increased drastically, and that is a

1205
01:37:46,790 --> 01:37:52,110
point, so therefore demand has commenced
in a significant way, and it's a stop

1206
01:37:52,110 --> 01:37:55,970
in demand, and it's absorption on the
way down.

1207
01:37:56,680 --> 01:38:01,140
So that we've studied. We've studied the
absorption throughout phases. We've

1208
01:38:01,140 --> 01:38:02,780
studied the absorption on the way down.

1209
01:38:03,340 --> 01:38:06,560
Now, we also studied a feather.

1210
01:38:06,840 --> 01:38:11,460
And a feather was a counter move

1211
01:38:11,460 --> 01:38:18,220
and then a grinding out action, price
action,

1212
01:38:18,460 --> 01:38:21,320
with higher highs, higher lows.

1213
01:38:22,820 --> 01:38:25,840
And this would be seen more on the
intraday.

1214
01:38:28,200 --> 01:38:31,660
And then both supply and demand are
diminished.

1215
01:38:32,320 --> 01:38:34,840
And it comes to the area of the
resistance.

1216
01:38:35,380 --> 01:38:42,040
And at this point, you know, we could be
expecting if the effort is going to

1217
01:38:42,040 --> 01:38:44,640
come, it's going to produce such a huge
momentum.

1218
01:38:44,860 --> 01:38:47,580
Why? Well, because supply has been
absorbed so much.

1219
01:38:49,360 --> 01:38:56,200
And therefore, when demand comes in like
this, on

1220
01:38:56,200 --> 01:39:02,420
the way up, When supply is in strong
hands, there is nothing stopping

1221
01:39:02,420 --> 01:39:07,940
the price from moving in such a quick
way.

1222
01:39:11,120 --> 01:39:15,160
And another thought here on the urgent
institutional demand.

1223
01:39:16,040 --> 01:39:19,780
Think about the word in here, urgent.

1224
01:39:20,400 --> 01:39:21,700
What does it mean?

1225
01:39:22,900 --> 01:39:27,360
Why are they so urgently trying to get
in into this position.

1226
01:39:27,580 --> 01:39:32,720
And please note, they're getting on the
way in, on the way up.

1227
01:39:33,000 --> 01:39:36,640
They are not, at this point, they're not
getting on the way down.

1228
01:39:37,160 --> 01:39:41,480
It's been done before, right? Here and
then at the sprint situation.

1229
01:39:42,640 --> 01:39:46,140
Here they're just like, I don't care, I
just want to be in this position.

1230
01:39:46,620 --> 01:39:53,100
I need to be in this position because I
see so much value in this position going

1231
01:39:53,100 --> 01:39:54,100
forward.

1232
01:39:55,310 --> 01:39:56,750
It's going to be a leadership stock.

1233
01:39:57,070 --> 01:40:03,990
So that urgent institutional demand,
usually in phase D, is

1234
01:40:03,990 --> 01:40:10,790
going to identify to us a timing of
uptrend emergence.

1235
01:40:14,630 --> 01:40:20,490
And we know that behind it are going to
be institutions and not weak hands.

1236
01:40:22,700 --> 01:40:28,400
And usually these type of stocks, if you
go and you visually backtest a lot of

1237
01:40:28,400 --> 01:40:34,900
this type of breakouts in Phase D, and
if you find a lot of institutional

1238
01:40:34,900 --> 01:40:39,240
signature in Phase D that pushes the
price like this with a lot of momentum,

1239
01:40:39,700 --> 01:40:46,200
bringing it above the levels of the
resistance, then you could

1240
01:40:46,200 --> 01:40:51,540
make a deduction here that it's not only
going to be a leadership stock.

1241
01:40:52,300 --> 01:40:56,340
but that the trend is going to be
sustainable for quite some time.

1242
01:40:56,640 --> 01:41:01,960
Because institutions don't buy for a
couple of weeks, a couple of months. No,

1243
01:41:02,140 --> 01:41:07,600
they hold on to their positions based on
the requirements that they have. And

1244
01:41:07,600 --> 01:41:14,500
one of them is to have long -term tax
advantages, have low

1245
01:41:14,500 --> 01:41:19,260
turnover ratio within their portfolio.

1246
01:41:20,339 --> 01:41:26,320
and obviously with an intent to
outperform the market, so they have to

1247
01:41:26,320 --> 01:41:31,640
leaders. They cannot pick just the
stocks that are going to underperform.

1248
01:41:32,100 --> 01:41:37,040
So based on all of this, when you see
this type of volume signature in Phase

1249
01:41:37,220 --> 01:41:39,600
you should be thinking about all of
those things.

1250
01:41:39,940 --> 01:41:45,720
And therefore, this type of the position
might be more of a long -term position

1251
01:41:45,720 --> 01:41:47,000
rather than a swing position.

1252
01:41:49,230 --> 01:41:52,210
All right, let's see if we have any
comments, questions.

1253
01:42:02,530 --> 01:42:05,670
Eric, I'm sorry, I don't quite
understand the question.

1254
01:42:13,310 --> 01:42:17,870
Okay, if nothing stops the demand.

1255
01:42:18,540 --> 01:42:25,240
Due to their accumulation, why backing
up action appears instead of going up?

1256
01:42:25,940 --> 01:42:31,080
Oh, I see. Okay, so maybe I'm grasping
this. Okay, so maybe the question is, if

1257
01:42:31,080 --> 01:42:37,980
there is so much momentum here, right,
because of institutional buy,

1258
01:42:38,140 --> 01:42:45,020
then why, you know, it doesn't go up but

1259
01:42:45,020 --> 01:42:46,620
goes into the backing up action?

1260
01:42:46,960 --> 01:42:52,980
Well, I think it's a structural question
here, right? Because think about how

1261
01:42:52,980 --> 01:42:54,200
supply is being observed.

1262
01:42:54,640 --> 01:43:00,880
So supply is being observed on the way
down, on the way down, on the way down.

1263
01:43:01,400 --> 01:43:05,760
So supply needs to be observed at the
specific levels.

1264
01:43:06,140 --> 01:43:09,740
And because there are so many market
participants,

1265
01:43:12,160 --> 01:43:16,880
emotional memory of where they
established the position, where they

1266
01:43:16,880 --> 01:43:19,220
win or the loss are going to be
remembered.

1267
01:43:19,540 --> 01:43:24,760
And obviously at the points of the
resistance, this is where that memory is

1268
01:43:24,760 --> 01:43:25,980
going to act out again.

1269
01:43:26,480 --> 01:43:33,260
Or we could state it in a different way.
We could say that because of how

1270
01:43:33,260 --> 01:43:39,720
humans develop systems for the market,
we could anticipate

1271
01:43:40,520 --> 01:43:46,360
that in the area of the short -term
overbought condition, there's going to

1272
01:43:46,360 --> 01:43:47,360
some selling.

1273
01:43:48,860 --> 01:43:55,720
Selling is going to come from mean
reversion trade

1274
01:43:55,720 --> 01:43:57,300
professionals.

1275
01:43:59,260 --> 01:44:04,620
The selling is going to come from short
-term trend followers.

1276
01:44:07,000 --> 01:44:11,800
get in right here they're gonna get out
somewhere here or on the way down at the

1277
01:44:11,800 --> 01:44:16,480
first sign of deterioration um and um

1278
01:44:16,480 --> 01:44:23,200
who else would be selling here at this
point

1279
01:44:23,200 --> 01:44:28,660
um public would not be selling public
would be excited getting in ceo is

1280
01:44:28,660 --> 01:44:35,580
in um institutional trend followers that
are long -term institutional trend

1281
01:44:35,580 --> 01:44:40,800
followers are just gonna hold on and
just wait to see how this position or

1282
01:44:40,800 --> 01:44:41,940
reaction is going to unfold.

1283
01:44:42,540 --> 01:44:47,360
So these are the predominant two groups
at this point that might be selling.

1284
01:44:47,580 --> 01:44:51,940
So they're going to increase the level
of supply at this level of the price.

1285
01:44:52,680 --> 01:44:57,300
And that increase of the supply and
selling is going to produce what? It's

1286
01:44:57,300 --> 01:45:00,080
to produce a stop in action and a short
-term reaction.

1287
01:45:01,060 --> 01:45:05,140
And therefore, this short -term reaction
is going to develop a backing up

1288
01:45:05,140 --> 01:45:06,140
action.

1289
01:45:06,830 --> 01:45:13,670
Yeah, Eric, is that what we wanted to
hear, right? So momentum, obviously, if

1290
01:45:13,670 --> 01:45:19,630
the buying is just continuous,
continuous, continuous, then we would be

1291
01:45:19,630 --> 01:45:21,850
anticipating a continuation like this.

1292
01:45:22,190 --> 01:45:28,390
But not in a lot of cases we see that. I
mean, this is more

1293
01:45:28,390 --> 01:45:33,810
something that would be a unique
situation. And I would say that in

1294
01:45:35,160 --> 01:45:36,160
liquidity stocks.

1295
01:45:36,360 --> 01:45:42,160
That's a possibility where big
institutions are not available

1296
01:45:42,160 --> 01:45:48,880
and smaller players could manipulate the
stock more freer. And

1297
01:45:48,880 --> 01:45:53,520
I would say that the low liquidity
stocks and the way how sometimes they

1298
01:45:53,520 --> 01:46:00,160
run up so much. In a lot of cases, this
reminds me of the stock campaigns

1299
01:46:00,160 --> 01:46:01,920
that Wyckoff himself

1300
01:46:02,840 --> 01:46:09,360
was describing in the course and in his
books and in his letters and magazine of

1301
01:46:09,360 --> 01:46:10,159
Wall Street.

1302
01:46:10,160 --> 01:46:16,560
And people like Jesse Livermore, J .P.
Morgan, James

1303
01:46:16,560 --> 01:46:23,440
Keen, and other big traders at the time
were conducting as

1304
01:46:23,440 --> 01:46:30,320
campaigns. They could take the stock,
buy out.

1305
01:46:30,590 --> 01:46:34,010
the majority of the supply and mark up
the price this way.

1306
01:46:34,590 --> 01:46:41,330
So on this action, we are learning this
in the

1307
01:46:41,330 --> 01:46:46,910
modern world, and sometimes it's really
hard to see on highly liquid stocks.

1308
01:46:47,290 --> 01:46:51,130
But it's extremely easy to see on
illiquid stocks.

1309
01:46:51,730 --> 01:46:58,510
And therefore, illiquid stocks could be
manipulated more.

1310
01:47:00,590 --> 01:47:01,590
Okay, great.

1311
01:47:04,910 --> 01:47:07,710
Okay, we should probably go from here.

1312
01:47:09,810 --> 01:47:14,290
Okay, so really quick now, Ash, and
let's not have any more questions on

1313
01:47:14,290 --> 01:47:17,890
really want to jump into the exercise.
If we got into the position between

1314
01:47:17,890 --> 01:47:24,610
February and March of 2003, with that
being a phase C

1315
01:47:24,610 --> 01:47:28,630
assumption, should we book a loss on a
spring and then initiate new?

1316
01:47:29,820 --> 01:47:32,160
your option after spring is confirmed.

1317
01:47:32,740 --> 01:47:38,120
So the question is around like here. So
let's say that we're thinking that this

1318
01:47:38,120 --> 01:47:41,400
is phase C, which we might at that
point.

1319
01:47:42,680 --> 01:47:44,280
This could be a point of entry.

1320
01:47:46,520 --> 01:47:48,080
This could be a point of entry.

1321
01:47:50,180 --> 01:47:51,340
So two, one.

1322
01:47:53,600 --> 01:47:57,900
So I'm kind of gonna do this in the way
of

1323
01:47:59,050 --> 01:48:02,510
Well, actually, it doesn't really
matter. So let's just quickly answer

1324
01:48:02,510 --> 01:48:06,630
question. So what do we do? Well, first
of all, where is our stop loss? Our stop

1325
01:48:06,630 --> 01:48:07,930
loss is going to be somewhere here.

1326
01:48:08,470 --> 01:48:13,270
So we would be hit if we're just using
the stop loss.

1327
01:48:14,450 --> 01:48:20,390
We probably would be thinking more of
getting out of this position even

1328
01:48:20,390 --> 01:48:21,610
before we are being hit.

1329
01:48:22,170 --> 01:48:27,460
Where? Well, as the price develops some
kind of structure and there is an

1330
01:48:27,460 --> 01:48:34,280
element of a time stop loss, within a
certain period

1331
01:48:34,280 --> 01:48:40,640
of time, my position is still
unprofitable and it doesn't work.

1332
01:48:42,280 --> 01:48:45,700
So this is two, two and a half months.

1333
01:48:46,240 --> 01:48:50,000
Would you be getting out of this
position or not?

1334
01:48:50,730 --> 01:48:56,170
So you could have the exit just based on
the time stop loss and time

1335
01:48:56,170 --> 01:48:58,250
characteristics. That's number one.

1336
01:48:59,790 --> 01:49:04,130
Secondly, we could get out and we could
just have a loss.

1337
01:49:04,370 --> 01:49:11,310
And this loss would be only, let's say,
half of

1338
01:49:11,310 --> 01:49:13,070
our position size.

1339
01:49:15,910 --> 01:49:22,760
Why? Well, because we only have... two
entries and we usually

1340
01:49:22,760 --> 01:49:29,700
would scale in in four segments right so
um even if it's a loss uh it's

1341
01:49:29,700 --> 01:49:35,100
only one half of the position size of
course there is a third decision here if

1342
01:49:35,100 --> 01:49:40,800
we're recognizing that this day had a
very unusual characteristic

1343
01:49:47,119 --> 01:49:53,480
of increasing downward spread on extreme
volume signature.

1344
01:49:55,960 --> 01:50:00,800
And if we analyze this bar, and we're
gonna say that this is a potential

1345
01:50:01,140 --> 01:50:06,560
then we might keep this position on,
even with the bar that comes next, right

1346
01:50:06,560 --> 01:50:10,960
here, because supply is diminishing,
result is diminishing as well, and then

1347
01:50:10,960 --> 01:50:12,000
have a high -low test.

1348
01:50:13,460 --> 01:50:19,000
So that could be a solution number
three, but you have to be an extremely

1349
01:50:19,000 --> 01:50:25,160
comfortable with your analysis and with
the bias that you're giving this stock.

1350
01:50:26,300 --> 01:50:30,520
So my preference is probably gonna be
something like this.

1351
01:50:31,540 --> 01:50:38,360
If I got in, let's say right here and
then here, at some point, I'm gonna say

1352
01:50:38,360 --> 01:50:41,000
my stop loss is gonna be somewhere here.

1353
01:50:41,770 --> 01:50:48,070
And partially I'm going to get out of
this position. So close, let's say, one

1354
01:50:48,070 --> 01:50:49,070
fourth.

1355
01:50:52,250 --> 01:50:57,970
And then it still will be exposed, but
not as much.

1356
01:50:59,910 --> 01:51:06,150
And then hopefully I will go through
this. And then obviously, even if I take

1357
01:51:06,150 --> 01:51:11,100
loss, My points of entry, just based on
what we just went through, are going to

1358
01:51:11,100 --> 01:51:17,980
be here, here, here, this bar, and then
we go into

1359
01:51:17,980 --> 01:51:24,780
this bar, this bar, this bar, this

1360
01:51:24,780 --> 01:51:30,400
bar, and so on and so forth. So again,
look at how we are accumulating this

1361
01:51:30,400 --> 01:51:35,180
position. By the way, we've done so many
campaign exercises.

1362
01:51:36,250 --> 01:51:37,850
at the Wyckoff Practicum course.

1363
01:51:39,030 --> 01:51:43,670
And I'm showing you exactly the reasons
of where we would be getting it, why we

1364
01:51:43,670 --> 01:51:45,730
would be getting in here, and so on and
so forth.

1365
01:51:46,790 --> 01:51:51,810
So this would be the sequence of
entries, possible entries.

1366
01:51:52,050 --> 01:51:56,770
And every time we enter, we want to
enter on the point of no return. What

1367
01:51:56,770 --> 01:51:57,409
it mean?

1368
01:51:57,410 --> 01:52:01,210
This is where the price does not come
back to this level.

1369
01:52:01,630 --> 01:52:05,130
Maybe it just came back somewhere here,
but everything else.

1370
01:52:05,550 --> 01:52:07,890
It's just the price does not return.

1371
01:52:08,150 --> 01:52:12,810
And that's just an element of the risk
control just based on how the structure

1372
01:52:12,810 --> 01:52:14,670
develops and where you enter itself.

1373
01:52:16,510 --> 01:52:17,510
All right, guys.

1374
01:52:18,990 --> 01:52:20,290
Let's go away from this.

1375
01:52:21,610 --> 01:52:27,610
And let's just see how much we're going
to do. So I'm thinking that maybe we'll

1376
01:52:27,610 --> 01:52:28,910
stay until six today.

1377
01:52:29,130 --> 01:52:30,130
We'll see.

1378
01:52:30,290 --> 01:52:31,510
All right, a volunteer.

1379
01:52:32,599 --> 01:52:39,360
And you have, actually, first, which bar
did we stop

1380
01:52:39,360 --> 01:52:42,980
at? I think that we've revealed this
whole chart, right?

1381
01:52:43,680 --> 01:52:45,080
Is that what we did?

1382
01:52:47,880 --> 01:52:52,480
So you have to remind me. Have we
discussed 52 to 58?

1383
01:53:07,500 --> 01:53:11,940
Okay, so I don't quite understand, guys.
Have we discussed 52 and 58?

1384
01:53:12,220 --> 01:53:14,160
Yes? Okay, so we've discussed that.

1385
01:53:19,460 --> 01:53:20,460
Have we really?

1386
01:53:23,660 --> 01:53:28,420
I think with Adam, we have stopped
somewhere here on 52.

1387
01:53:30,400 --> 01:53:31,400
All right.

1388
01:53:31,840 --> 01:53:35,920
Yeah, I think that we've discussed all
of this, and then we've stopped.

1389
01:53:36,940 --> 01:53:40,920
So let me discuss this, but I know that
I've revealed this right here.

1390
01:53:42,540 --> 01:53:49,480
So let me discuss 52 to 58, and then I
want to have a volunteer so that

1391
01:53:49,480 --> 01:53:50,840
we would start the next segment.

1392
01:53:51,620 --> 01:53:55,120
So let's look really quickly at 50 and
51.

1393
01:53:57,120 --> 01:54:04,100
We said that after the secondary test,
which was somewhat successful, look at

1394
01:54:04,100 --> 01:54:05,780
the levels of the supply here.

1395
01:54:06,380 --> 01:54:12,100
And look at where the price is
rebounding relative to the height of the

1396
01:54:12,400 --> 01:54:16,660
They're kind of rebounding off the one
half of that range, of that height of

1397
01:54:16,660 --> 01:54:17,398
that range.

1398
01:54:17,400 --> 01:54:20,240
So that suggested that we're going to
have an upthrust.

1399
01:54:20,540 --> 01:54:23,860
And the upthrust is usually an element
in phase B.

1400
01:54:24,440 --> 01:54:30,600
So there was a build -in trade right
here that would get us above 42.

1401
01:54:31,420 --> 01:54:37,960
And then at the first signs of the
deterioration, we're going to be looking

1402
01:54:37,960 --> 01:54:41,920
sell if this is a very short swing
trade.

1403
01:54:42,400 --> 01:54:47,760
And we see those signs of deterioration
in the diminution spread signature of

1404
01:54:47,760 --> 01:54:54,460
the 46, in the supply tail, in the
increased effort that doesn't produce

1405
01:54:54,460 --> 01:54:56,420
the same result as 45.

1406
01:54:57,000 --> 01:55:02,680
So therefore, right here somewhere, we
will be getting out. After that, 47.

1407
01:55:03,610 --> 01:55:08,210
develops a change of character this is a
small trading range on the intraday

1408
01:55:08,210 --> 01:55:13,310
basis we just don't see it on the daily
but this is the first bar since the low

1409
01:55:13,310 --> 01:55:19,570
of 44 that suggests that we are done
this is a confirmation and we go into

1410
01:55:19,570 --> 01:55:26,390
reaction and look at the reaction that
we have um the supply

1411
01:55:26,390 --> 01:55:32,390
increases and we were we were talking
about first emergence of the supply how

1412
01:55:34,499 --> 01:55:36,960
Change is gradual.

1413
01:55:38,960 --> 01:55:44,660
And think about this statement. Why
change is gradual in the markets?

1414
01:55:44,660 --> 01:55:49,560
it's very violent, right? And everything
changes very quick. Like the market

1415
01:55:49,560 --> 01:55:51,400
that we had in December, January.

1416
01:55:51,820 --> 01:55:56,100
We were in such a bearish sentiment and
then quickly that sentiment changes.

1417
01:55:56,420 --> 01:56:00,860
But even with that quickness, we still
had a week or two.

1418
01:56:01,560 --> 01:56:06,380
where we could have guessed that the
change is taking place and we could have

1419
01:56:06,380 --> 01:56:09,400
seen the signs of the demand coming in
into the market.

1420
01:56:09,640 --> 01:56:11,080
Well, here this is the opposite.

1421
01:56:11,400 --> 01:56:18,220
A change comes gradually at point number
45 because we see that the volume

1422
01:56:18,220 --> 01:56:19,280
signature has increased.

1423
01:56:20,480 --> 01:56:25,380
So what does it mean? It has some
suggestion that supply has come here.

1424
01:56:25,800 --> 01:56:31,100
yet the result is still favorable, so
that supply is small and does not

1425
01:56:31,100 --> 01:56:33,160
a lot of the result to the downside.

1426
01:56:34,760 --> 01:56:39,140
Then at 46, that supply has increased.

1427
01:56:39,860 --> 01:56:44,640
How do we know this? Well, the volume
signature has increased by itself,

1428
01:56:44,640 --> 01:56:46,260
number one, so supply has increased.

1429
01:56:46,700 --> 01:56:51,080
And at the same time, the result to the
upside has diminished.

1430
01:56:51,340 --> 01:56:58,010
So this means that on the more supply,
we're producing

1431
01:56:58,010 --> 01:57:04,650
more of the stopping action and more
reaction within the context of this

1432
01:57:04,650 --> 01:57:07,070
bullish upswing from 44 to 46.

1433
01:57:07,510 --> 01:57:11,850
So we see how from 45 to 46 supply
increases.

1434
01:57:12,950 --> 01:57:18,950
Then at 48, we're seeing that the volume
goes down.

1435
01:57:20,010 --> 01:57:22,230
And that suggests that

1436
01:57:24,560 --> 01:57:31,440
Demand by itself is deteriorating. And
we see how even if

1437
01:57:31,440 --> 01:57:37,760
supply is going down as well, we see
that the

1438
01:57:37,760 --> 01:57:44,740
close is lower than at 46, that the tail
at 48

1439
01:57:44,740 --> 01:57:48,280
to the downside, the supply tail, is
more than at 46.

1440
01:57:49,120 --> 01:57:55,280
So that gives us an understanding that
on diminishing supply, we are producing

1441
01:57:55,280 --> 01:58:00,680
better result to the downside. So there
is some kind of ease of movement built

1442
01:58:00,680 --> 01:58:03,360
in into that bar.

1443
01:58:03,580 --> 01:58:10,540
And obviously, looking at the
intentions, intention behind 45 was to

1444
01:58:10,540 --> 01:58:16,120
overcome the high of 42. We did that.
Intention of 46 was to overcome the high

1445
01:58:16,120 --> 01:58:16,839
of 45.

1446
01:58:16,840 --> 01:58:17,880
We did that.

1447
01:58:18,320 --> 01:58:20,760
and we committed at the close above.

1448
01:58:21,340 --> 01:58:27,840
Intention behind 48 was to overcome the
resistance at 46

1449
01:58:27,840 --> 01:58:34,640
and commit above it, and yet we don't do
that. Instead, we are closing below

1450
01:58:34,640 --> 01:58:36,220
the close of 46.

1451
01:58:36,540 --> 01:58:42,960
So that shows us the timing of when the
price is ready to go down because the

1452
01:58:42,960 --> 01:58:48,260
effort and the result at this point are
somewhat synced.

1453
01:58:51,260 --> 01:58:55,060
And in the practicum, I'm gonna show you
and we're gonna have couple of

1454
01:58:55,060 --> 01:58:59,200
exercises on synchronicity between the
effort and the result.

1455
01:59:01,100 --> 01:59:03,700
And that defines the beginning of the
reaction.

1456
01:59:04,020 --> 01:59:10,260
As the reaction starts, we see that
supply is present and then on the next

1457
01:59:10,500 --> 01:59:15,580
we see that supply is present but demand
is coming in.

1458
01:59:16,940 --> 01:59:21,840
volume increases, and yet the result is
better than the previous bar, what does

1459
01:59:21,840 --> 01:59:24,120
it mean? It means that demand is there.

1460
01:59:24,860 --> 01:59:25,900
Demand is present.

1461
01:59:26,180 --> 01:59:30,120
And we see that also from the tail, from
close to close.

1462
01:59:31,480 --> 01:59:37,980
Look at this close relative to 49 close,
and look at 49 and 50. They're almost

1463
01:59:37,980 --> 01:59:40,880
at the same level. So demand is
definitely there.

1464
01:59:41,240 --> 01:59:46,730
And if demand is there, The first thing
is just to stop the price from moving

1465
01:59:46,730 --> 01:59:53,510
further down. And this means that
absorption was happening on the way

1466
01:59:53,510 --> 01:59:54,510
down.

1467
01:59:55,610 --> 01:59:58,430
And now we're going to go into some kind
of testing.

1468
01:59:59,050 --> 02:00:05,590
And the testing supply is going to
locally increase at the level of the

1469
02:00:08,070 --> 02:00:10,890
And we see those testing attempts.

1470
02:00:11,490 --> 02:00:12,490
Number one.

1471
02:00:12,800 --> 02:00:19,040
number two, number three, number four,
number five, number six.

1472
02:00:19,520 --> 02:00:22,660
Quite a lot of tests here.

1473
02:00:23,440 --> 02:00:30,400
And the last two bars, I have in the
price characteristic of

1474
02:00:30,400 --> 02:00:31,400
a feather.

1475
02:00:31,640 --> 02:00:35,820
And I'm sure that on the intraday you
could see this. So we're coming into the

1476
02:00:35,820 --> 02:00:40,540
short -term resistance right here, and
look how the...

1477
02:00:40,990 --> 02:00:43,930
Supply and demand signature are
diminishing on the reaction.

1478
02:00:44,290 --> 02:00:48,650
There is some kind of grinding out
action into the resistance.

1479
02:00:49,030 --> 02:00:52,450
So we know that after the feather, what
are we going to have? We're going to

1480
02:00:52,450 --> 02:00:56,490
have some kind of momentum move, and
that goes into 52.

1481
02:00:57,050 --> 02:01:04,050
Now, right away, I'm thinking here that
52 is probably going to be

1482
02:01:04,050 --> 02:01:09,810
analogous to 45 and 46 if I combine
these two bars together.

1483
02:01:11,120 --> 02:01:16,120
So look at that. Does that look the same
or almost the same?

1484
02:01:16,600 --> 02:01:23,200
Doesn't that have the same intention of
overcoming the resistance at

1485
02:01:23,200 --> 02:01:26,720
46 and moving further up?

1486
02:01:27,180 --> 02:01:29,420
Yeah, so let's compare those.

1487
02:01:29,660 --> 02:01:35,900
So we're going to compare 52 and 45 and
46.

1488
02:01:37,420 --> 02:01:43,720
And here, obviously right away a
question is going to be should we

1489
02:01:43,720 --> 02:01:50,460
volume signature cumulatively or should
we compare

1490
02:01:50,460 --> 02:01:57,460
it just uh you know on absolute basis
and we could do both uh in this

1491
02:01:57,460 --> 02:02:01,320
case i mean obviously we know that
cumulatively there's going to be more

1492
02:02:01,320 --> 02:02:07,390
right here to push the price up less
effort here but I would use probably

1493
02:02:07,390 --> 02:02:08,510
an absolute value.

1494
02:02:08,850 --> 02:02:15,470
That just tells me that the increase in
the volume signature, which is one of

1495
02:02:15,470 --> 02:02:22,190
the highest increases since the selling
climax itself, is most likely carrying a

1496
02:02:22,190 --> 02:02:23,190
lot of supply.

1497
02:02:23,270 --> 02:02:24,910
So there is some supply increase.

1498
02:02:25,270 --> 02:02:32,090
So I know that there's going to be a
gradual change.

1499
02:02:34,380 --> 02:02:39,140
That's going to come. That's possibly
going to come at some point. Where is

1500
02:02:39,140 --> 02:02:40,660
confirmation of this idea?

1501
02:02:40,900 --> 02:02:45,660
Well, the first confirmation is just in
the bar number 52 itself.

1502
02:02:46,960 --> 02:02:52,360
Even though it looks bullish, and this
is where amateurs are going to make a

1503
02:02:52,360 --> 02:02:56,460
mistake, and this is the whole game for
institutions.

1504
02:02:57,580 --> 02:02:59,660
Amateurs are getting excited.

1505
02:03:00,360 --> 02:03:03,540
Weak hands are getting excited at 52.

1506
02:03:04,320 --> 02:03:10,220
It looks bullish by the conventional
technical analysis. Look at the volume

1507
02:03:10,220 --> 02:03:15,200
signature. Does the volume confirms the
price action?

1508
02:03:16,880 --> 02:03:17,880
Yes.

1509
02:03:20,280 --> 02:03:22,140
The volume goes up.

1510
02:03:22,420 --> 02:03:25,760
The price goes up. Volume confirms the
price.

1511
02:03:32,170 --> 02:03:38,770
A little bit erroneous statement in this
class because the volume needs to

1512
02:03:38,770 --> 02:03:43,570
confirm not necessarily just how bullish
the bar is.

1513
02:03:43,950 --> 02:03:50,310
It needs also to confirm a commitment
for this bar. What was the commitment,

1514
02:03:50,670 --> 02:03:51,710
the intention?

1515
02:03:52,470 --> 02:03:57,450
Was the commitment above 46, the high of
46? Do we do that?

1516
02:03:57,710 --> 02:03:58,710
No.

1517
02:03:59,820 --> 02:04:06,740
So we're seeing an increase in supply
that stops the 52 bar from

1518
02:04:06,740 --> 02:04:08,480
committing above the resistance.

1519
02:04:09,180 --> 02:04:10,580
Bullish or bearish?

1520
02:04:12,380 --> 02:04:13,760
Probably bearish.

1521
02:04:16,020 --> 02:04:22,880
Just because supply emerges and it has
the capacity to stop the

1522
02:04:22,880 --> 02:04:24,600
price from going further up.

1523
02:04:24,880 --> 02:04:28,660
So that's the first sign of supply.

1524
02:04:29,800 --> 02:04:31,720
emergence in this area.

1525
02:04:31,940 --> 02:04:34,800
Then the next confirmation is gonna be
at 53.

1526
02:04:35,360 --> 02:04:39,040
So 53, look at the level of the supply.

1527
02:04:39,600 --> 02:04:46,380
The level of the supply is increasing
and then we are producing

1528
02:04:46,380 --> 02:04:52,740
a relatively big supply bar to the low
and

1529
02:04:52,740 --> 02:04:59,240
I would be thinking that this acts, if
52 acts as a bind climax, 53 acts as a

1530
02:04:59,240 --> 02:05:02,000
change of character and automatic
reaction.

1531
02:05:02,340 --> 02:05:09,200
Kind of reminds me of 46 as a bind
climax and then 47 as an automatic

1532
02:05:09,200 --> 02:05:13,820
reaction. So again, we are comparing

1533
02:05:13,820 --> 02:05:20,660
these bars of these two areas using the

1534
02:05:20,660 --> 02:05:27,220
analogs. And we are seeing that the 53
change of

1535
02:05:27,220 --> 02:05:33,400
character, a change of character at 53
is more bearish

1536
02:05:33,400 --> 02:05:40,400
than the change of character at

1537
02:05:40,400 --> 02:05:42,320
47.

1538
02:05:48,540 --> 02:05:52,320
Multiple conclusions can come up out of
this.

1539
02:05:53,770 --> 02:05:56,830
We have not overcome the resistance at
46 .48.

1540
02:05:57,530 --> 02:05:58,530
We stopped.

1541
02:05:58,910 --> 02:06:04,390
Then we tried to overcome. We gapped up
on 53 and then instantly went down.

1542
02:06:05,690 --> 02:06:09,090
And that change of character is so much
more than at 47.

1543
02:06:09,870 --> 02:06:15,470
So what kind of deductions could we have
here? Even at that point, we could say

1544
02:06:15,470 --> 02:06:22,130
that it's more bearish because there is
more supply.

1545
02:06:22,919 --> 02:06:25,880
and there is more result to the
downside.

1546
02:06:27,540 --> 02:06:34,120
So we know that if we had a reaction
from 46 to 50, most likely

1547
02:06:34,120 --> 02:06:40,000
the next reaction that we're going to
have is not just going to be to this

1548
02:06:40,000 --> 02:06:42,940
level. It's probably going to extend.

1549
02:06:43,580 --> 02:06:48,920
And where would it extend to? Well, what
are our targets? So the low of 44, the

1550
02:06:48,920 --> 02:06:50,160
low of 40 and 41.

1551
02:06:50,940 --> 02:06:52,880
So this is our target zone.

1552
02:06:55,540 --> 02:06:59,880
And here with the target zone, we would
be thinking that if this is an

1553
02:06:59,880 --> 02:07:04,580
overbought condition for this target,
then this is going to be an oversold

1554
02:07:04,580 --> 02:07:05,580
condition.

1555
02:07:05,800 --> 02:07:10,340
And we would be thinking that this is a
good trade for us. So we would be

1556
02:07:10,340 --> 02:07:13,720
looking for an opportunity to open the
position here.

1557
02:07:14,060 --> 02:07:19,740
Now there is something wrong about...
Bar number 53, if we're thinking

1558
02:07:19,740 --> 02:07:21,480
establishing the position right away.

1559
02:07:21,960 --> 02:07:23,040
What is wrong?

1560
02:07:23,560 --> 02:07:29,360
Well, we see that on a short -term
basis, we have a tail that is a demand

1561
02:07:32,600 --> 02:07:37,220
So this demand tail suggests that short
-term, we're going to have some kind of

1562
02:07:37,220 --> 02:07:38,980
attempt to rally at this point.

1563
02:07:39,200 --> 02:07:41,520
Plus, think about the momentum on 52.

1564
02:07:41,860 --> 02:07:46,220
We still have not deteriorated that
momentum yet.

1565
02:07:47,440 --> 02:07:51,420
So that confirms that on a short -term
basis, the rally might happen.

1566
02:07:51,740 --> 02:07:56,060
So we just need to see. And if the rally
is going to develop, we're probably

1567
02:07:56,060 --> 02:07:58,760
looking at the trading range like we had
at 46, 48.

1568
02:07:59,780 --> 02:08:06,540
So next bar, 54, is a very interesting
bar because this is an analogous bar

1569
02:08:06,540 --> 02:08:08,120
to 52.

1570
02:08:10,620 --> 02:08:15,600
Look at the effort at 54 in comparison
to 52.

1571
02:08:17,070 --> 02:08:18,070
It's the same.

1572
02:08:20,190 --> 02:08:27,170
Yet, what could we say about the result
of 52 relative to the result

1573
02:08:27,170 --> 02:08:30,270
at, I'm sorry, 54 relative to the result
at 52?

1574
02:08:31,790 --> 02:08:36,910
Well, we see that the upspread is
definitely diminishing.

1575
02:08:38,490 --> 02:08:43,710
We see that the close to spread

1576
02:08:45,610 --> 02:08:52,610
is deteriorating as well. We are seeing
a tail here on this bar where we didn't

1577
02:08:52,610 --> 02:08:56,570
have any tails at the top of the spread
at 52.

1578
02:08:57,270 --> 02:09:03,790
So that suggests some kind of supply or
deterioration of the demand.

1579
02:09:03,970 --> 02:09:08,310
And with the volume signature, most
likely increase of the supply.

1580
02:09:09,150 --> 02:09:12,910
So we even thinking that there is more
supply

1581
02:09:13,999 --> 02:09:19,900
at 54 than at 52,

1582
02:09:19,940 --> 02:09:24,780
just because of how result is being
shown to us.

1583
02:09:26,560 --> 02:09:28,920
We also look at the close to close.

1584
02:09:32,000 --> 02:09:37,400
And we are seeing that definitely in the
case of 52,

1585
02:09:37,720 --> 02:09:41,900
there is more progression from close to
close.

1586
02:09:42,620 --> 02:09:48,740
So again, deterioration. And then the
intention was obviously the same.

1587
02:09:48,980 --> 02:09:51,620
The same as the bar number 46.

1588
02:09:52,140 --> 02:09:54,180
The same as the bar number 45.

1589
02:09:54,680 --> 02:09:56,720
The same as the bar number 52.

1590
02:09:57,080 --> 02:09:58,960
The same as the bar number 53.

1591
02:09:59,580 --> 02:10:03,780
The intent is to commit above the level
of the resistance.

1592
02:10:04,280 --> 02:10:10,540
And we still cannot do that. And now
commitment line is slightly higher even.

1593
02:10:10,990 --> 02:10:15,470
But even if we use 46 as a commitment
line, we're closing below it.

1594
02:10:15,710 --> 02:10:19,430
So therefore, no, intention was not
fulfilled.

1595
02:10:19,710 --> 02:10:26,290
So all of this is extremely bearish, and
the result of bar number 54 is

1596
02:10:26,290 --> 02:10:28,530
deteriorating after bar number 52.

1597
02:10:29,030 --> 02:10:32,670
So now we know that most likely we're
going to have some kind of reaction.

1598
02:10:33,660 --> 02:10:39,200
There is still some momentum on bar
number 54. We might assume that we are

1599
02:10:39,200 --> 02:10:43,160
the trading range at this point. We
would be looking at the phase analysis

1600
02:10:43,160 --> 02:10:45,680
so on and so forth. And then bar 55
comes.

1601
02:10:46,540 --> 02:10:53,260
So if we said that 54 is more bearish
than 52, then 55 is

1602
02:10:53,260 --> 02:10:56,060
much more bearish than any of these two
bars.

1603
02:10:56,400 --> 02:11:02,240
Why? Well, because the effort is almost
the same or just slightly below.

1604
02:11:04,520 --> 02:11:10,900
just slightly below or equals the
previous efforts here.

1605
02:11:11,080 --> 02:11:13,820
And yet the result is so much smaller.

1606
02:11:14,820 --> 02:11:17,400
We don't have the same type of spread.

1607
02:11:18,460 --> 02:11:21,440
It's very condensed, diminished.

1608
02:11:22,140 --> 02:11:28,620
We are not closing above the high of the
54

1609
02:11:28,620 --> 02:11:29,660
bar.

1610
02:11:30,860 --> 02:11:37,390
And that suggests that the intention was
not fulfilled, and that's bearish by

1611
02:11:37,390 --> 02:11:43,930
itself. So this 55 is a much more
bearish bar than 52 and 53.

1612
02:11:44,150 --> 02:11:48,890
And therefore, again, change happens
gradually.

1613
02:11:49,630 --> 02:11:56,190
And the reason why it happens gradually
is because there is no way that the CEO

1614
02:11:56,190 --> 02:11:59,650
or professionals could unload their
positions instantly.

1615
02:11:59,950 --> 02:12:01,890
If they do, they're going to...

1616
02:12:02,250 --> 02:12:07,670
influence the price in such a way that
we're going to see more of this type of

1617
02:12:07,670 --> 02:12:09,270
movement out of this place.

1618
02:12:09,890 --> 02:12:15,550
Here at the top, they're trying to sell
in such a way that would not move the

1619
02:12:15,550 --> 02:12:19,550
price significantly down before they get
rid of the stock.

1620
02:12:21,090 --> 02:12:22,490
And then what comes next?

1621
02:12:22,810 --> 02:12:27,930
Next, 56 has a deteriorating supply
signature.

1622
02:12:28,390 --> 02:12:29,970
And that's again...

1623
02:12:30,280 --> 02:12:34,480
gonna be something confusing to a lot of
amateur traders. Why?

1624
02:12:34,700 --> 02:12:39,100
Well, because first of all, they're not
gonna see supply at 52.

1625
02:12:39,820 --> 02:12:43,520
They're gonna miss increased supply at
54.

1626
02:12:44,340 --> 02:12:48,080
They're gonna miss supply at 55.

1627
02:12:48,960 --> 02:12:55,720
And then when the down bar happens and
they see that okay, well, maybe

1628
02:12:55,720 --> 02:13:02,020
there is a decrease in supply, and it's
still within the context of the uptrend.

1629
02:13:02,080 --> 02:13:08,780
We're close to this long -term support,
so I should get in here, or I should

1630
02:13:08,780 --> 02:13:14,840
add. And obviously, they will be
mistaken, because we know that all of

1631
02:13:14,980 --> 02:13:21,960
not, well, up bars, contain supply

1632
02:13:21,960 --> 02:13:22,960
signature.

1633
02:13:23,530 --> 02:13:25,490
in the volume signature.

1634
02:13:28,150 --> 02:13:31,190
So therefore, what is 56 then?

1635
02:13:32,250 --> 02:13:38,690
Because now that we're thinking what has
happened, we're seeing supply,

1636
02:13:39,010 --> 02:13:44,310
supply, supply, supply, and then lower
supply.

1637
02:13:48,150 --> 02:13:49,990
And yet what happens?

1638
02:13:50,750 --> 02:13:57,670
we are actually committing at the close
of the 56 below the level of

1639
02:13:57,670 --> 02:14:01,910
the bar of 55, which was the last
attempt to commit to the upside.

1640
02:14:02,710 --> 02:14:05,430
So we have not experienced this yet.

1641
02:14:05,870 --> 02:14:08,490
Look at this bar right here, 52.

1642
02:14:09,310 --> 02:14:10,750
Do we have a close below?

1643
02:14:10,970 --> 02:14:11,970
No.

1644
02:14:12,550 --> 02:14:14,250
Look at this bar, 53.

1645
02:14:14,510 --> 02:14:16,110
Do we have a close below? No.

1646
02:14:16,890 --> 02:14:18,210
54, no.

1647
02:14:18,750 --> 02:14:23,570
55, so I'm only going through the bars
that had some supply signature in it.

1648
02:14:24,090 --> 02:14:26,110
Yes, for the first time we have that.

1649
02:14:26,510 --> 02:14:32,050
But it happens on the diminishing supply
signature, and yet intention

1650
02:14:32,050 --> 02:14:38,390
has been satisfied and fulfilled, and
therefore

1651
02:14:38,390 --> 02:14:45,370
this looks like a timing tool for us to
consider

1652
02:14:45,370 --> 02:14:47,950
that this is when the move is gonna
start.

1653
02:14:48,460 --> 02:14:53,720
And by itself, with this commitment to
the downside on diminution supply

1654
02:14:53,720 --> 02:14:57,520
signature, this bar is an ease of
movement bar.

1655
02:14:59,320 --> 02:15:03,040
And that's how we would view it. Could
we open the position here? Yes,

1656
02:15:03,040 --> 02:15:06,760
absolutely. We would be thinking about
opening the position here.

1657
02:15:07,140 --> 02:15:12,460
And then we would be thinking we're
probably waiting for some kind of LPSY

1658
02:15:12,460 --> 02:15:14,680
backing up type of action.

1659
02:15:17,769 --> 02:15:24,490
maybe of a more manageable major sign of
weakness, which comes at

1660
02:15:24,490 --> 02:15:27,270
57, especially on the intraday level.

1661
02:15:27,510 --> 02:15:34,410
You will have to look at this more as a
trading range right here,

1662
02:15:34,470 --> 02:15:36,470
from 52 to 58.

1663
02:15:37,490 --> 02:15:44,370
So if 57 is a sign of weakness, then 58
is an LPSY, less point of

1664
02:15:44,370 --> 02:15:49,100
supply. so there are quite a few places
here that we would open the position or

1665
02:15:49,100 --> 02:15:55,000
we can open the position first bar at 57
you know still somewhat vibrant but

1666
02:15:55,000 --> 02:16:01,480
still look at the levels of the supply
it's still there so all of those bars

1667
02:16:01,480 --> 02:16:08,360
is just basically selling and uh the
first bar is

1668
02:16:08,360 --> 02:16:09,360
uh

1669
02:16:10,129 --> 02:16:12,190
active, aggressive to the upside.

1670
02:16:12,450 --> 02:16:14,990
So we should be expecting some kind of
retest.

1671
02:16:15,330 --> 02:16:19,090
So retest is coming like this.

1672
02:16:20,410 --> 02:16:25,150
And this would be our last point of
supply. So we could open the position

1673
02:16:25,310 --> 02:16:26,310
somewhere here.

1674
02:16:26,630 --> 02:16:31,670
And then as we break out to the
downside, this level is also could be

1675
02:16:31,670 --> 02:16:34,990
for opening the position. So three
places that we could do this.

1676
02:16:35,230 --> 02:16:38,070
Obviously, we could also do this on bar
number 55.

1677
02:16:39,020 --> 02:16:45,059
And the reason why we could do this is
because within the longer term

1678
02:16:45,059 --> 02:16:50,500
structure and some of you who sent me
the homeworks, you guys did a really

1679
02:16:50,500 --> 02:16:54,959
job because you were thinking that this
is our trading right trade here. It's

1680
02:16:54,959 --> 02:16:55,959
just up sloping.

1681
02:16:56,020 --> 02:17:01,580
And then this is phase A, test in B,
test in B, C.

1682
02:17:02,600 --> 02:17:05,840
And therefore, we could have a trade
here.

1683
02:17:06,440 --> 02:17:08,120
Okay, I don't mind that.

1684
02:17:08,440 --> 02:17:12,020
and I don't mind that trade at all. This
is a good trade.

1685
02:17:12,280 --> 02:17:14,360
I just want us to understand this.

1686
02:17:15,020 --> 02:17:16,660
How does it happen?

1687
02:17:16,860 --> 02:17:23,459
How do we compare on the analog basis
what is happening in the

1688
02:17:23,459 --> 02:17:30,400
second area compared to the first area,
on the SWIN18 compared to SWIN16?

1689
02:17:32,440 --> 02:17:36,740
All right, so if we're in this position,
how would we...

1690
02:17:37,040 --> 02:17:43,100
handle it how would we manage it well
let's assume that we are fully invested

1691
02:17:43,100 --> 02:17:49,700
already in this position 58 bar is
really good for us because it still

1692
02:17:49,700 --> 02:17:55,879
shows that supply is increasing on the
way down so we are feeling really well

1693
02:17:55,879 --> 02:18:02,580
um and you know there is a suggestion to
add right here which we would

1694
02:18:03,530 --> 02:18:07,010
And then look at how the price moves to
the downside, the characteristics.

1695
02:18:07,590 --> 02:18:14,570
Dimension supply signature, and as we
come close to our target zone, we are

1696
02:18:14,570 --> 02:18:21,230
starting to experience some kind of
buying as the oversold zone

1697
02:18:21,230 --> 02:18:27,030
acts more as a value zone right here.

1698
02:18:27,389 --> 02:18:28,790
So there is some buying.

1699
02:18:30,320 --> 02:18:37,020
around 59 .60, and then the price
continues to the downside and comes

1700
02:18:37,020 --> 02:18:42,620
the oversold condition, below 40 and 41
on increased volume signature.

1701
02:18:42,959 --> 02:18:48,299
So right away here, we would be
thinking, what are we doing here?

1702
02:18:48,500 --> 02:18:55,440
Are we experiencing a distribution, a
continuation of the distribution that

1703
02:18:55,440 --> 02:18:58,840
we have had, or could we possibly

1704
02:19:00,520 --> 02:19:06,520
be thinking about the trading range and
maybe more of the accumulation type of

1705
02:19:06,520 --> 02:19:12,559
action. So with that, guys, I want to
see who would like to volunteer

1706
02:19:12,559 --> 02:19:18,559
to go through the next segment with me.
So just say yes, and hopefully somebody

1707
02:19:18,559 --> 02:19:20,280
who has not done this before.

1708
02:19:21,080 --> 02:19:26,299
And we'll go for maybe 20, 25 minutes
after this.

1709
02:19:34,889 --> 02:19:40,309
I'm waiting, waiting, still waiting,
still nobody is saying yes.

1710
02:19:41,110 --> 02:19:44,170
Now I'm curious about why nobody is
saying yes.

1711
02:19:44,830 --> 02:19:48,890
What are your thoughts inside of your
head? Why are you not stepping in?

1712
02:19:49,130 --> 02:19:52,450
This is an excellent opportunity to
advance your knowledge.

1713
02:19:53,270 --> 02:19:54,410
Yes, it's uncomfortable.

1714
02:19:54,650 --> 02:19:55,650
I get this.

1715
02:19:56,170 --> 02:19:58,470
You don't want to do this. I get this.

1716
02:19:58,670 --> 02:20:00,730
But that's the only way.

1717
02:20:01,330 --> 02:20:02,850
All right, let's go to Doug.

1718
02:20:03,910 --> 02:20:05,590
Some motivational speech for you.

1719
02:20:06,350 --> 02:20:07,350
Hey, Doug.

1720
02:20:07,790 --> 02:20:08,790
Hey, how are you doing?

1721
02:20:09,410 --> 02:20:12,670
Good. I can't hear you really well.
Could you be closer to the microphone,

1722
02:20:12,790 --> 02:20:13,890
please? Sure.

1723
02:20:17,370 --> 02:20:18,370
How's that?

1724
02:20:18,390 --> 02:20:19,790
Much better. Much better, Doug.

1725
02:20:20,810 --> 02:20:27,730
All right. So I stopped the analysis at
around 61, and I said that there

1726
02:20:27,730 --> 02:20:31,850
are... probably a couple of scenarios
where either looking at the distribution

1727
02:20:31,850 --> 02:20:36,770
of this is just a first move or like a
second big move to the downside.

1728
02:20:37,650 --> 02:20:42,070
And the second scenario, maybe we're in
the trading range and we need to define

1729
02:20:42,070 --> 02:20:43,570
the bias of this trade range.

1730
02:20:44,190 --> 02:20:47,490
Let me ask you a more general question.

1731
02:20:47,910 --> 02:20:51,350
How would you approach this puzzle? How
would you approach this problem?

1732
02:20:52,130 --> 02:20:54,250
What are the first things?

1733
02:20:54,980 --> 02:20:56,340
answering those questions.

1734
02:20:56,560 --> 02:21:02,240
And basically the question is, are you
bullish or are you bearish at this

1735
02:21:02,420 --> 02:21:09,380
How would you think about it? I want to
understand the logic of

1736
02:21:09,380 --> 02:21:14,820
this thought so that we would either
say, yes, this is good, or we would

1737
02:21:14,820 --> 02:21:16,900
this logic. So what are you thinking?

1738
02:21:19,710 --> 02:21:26,090
Point 61, although it is a bullish bar
and it's finishing near the top

1739
02:21:26,090 --> 02:21:32,310
on its close, it's still, in terms of
the recent activity,

1740
02:21:32,970 --> 02:21:36,810
it hasn't really accomplished very much
yet.

1741
02:21:37,510 --> 02:21:43,690
There is some demand. I guess the other
factor that I'd look at is there is a

1742
02:21:43,690 --> 02:21:48,350
fairly big... Doug?

1743
02:21:48,910 --> 02:21:49,910
I lost you.

1744
02:21:52,410 --> 02:21:53,750
Sorry, I hit the button.

1745
02:21:54,090 --> 02:22:00,110
Yeah, so on 61, the extenuating factor
is there's a pretty big demand tail

1746
02:22:00,110 --> 02:22:01,410
coming in on 61.

1747
02:22:04,250 --> 02:22:10,490
But, again, its close is really not
really

1748
02:22:10,490 --> 02:22:14,490
moving too far up than the two previous.

1749
02:22:16,350 --> 02:22:17,350
bearish bars.

1750
02:22:17,370 --> 02:22:19,570
It hasn't really accomplished a whole
lot there.

1751
02:22:20,590 --> 02:22:22,810
Okay, so therefore the bias?

1752
02:22:23,690 --> 02:22:28,930
The bias to me is still bearish. Still
bearish. Okay, so let me ask you another

1753
02:22:28,930 --> 02:22:29,930
question.

1754
02:22:31,930 --> 02:22:34,270
It's kind of like a continuation
question.

1755
02:22:35,030 --> 02:22:41,730
For the bearish bias, what do we have to
see from the price and the volume

1756
02:22:41,730 --> 02:22:42,730
signature as well?

1757
02:22:43,230 --> 02:22:44,730
to confirm this assumption.

1758
02:22:45,050 --> 02:22:49,730
So what would be kind of like the next,
how would the price structure unfold

1759
02:22:49,730 --> 02:22:51,690
next if this is a bear scenario?

1760
02:22:54,550 --> 02:23:00,710
Well, there is, you know, that bar at 61
has one of the highest volume

1761
02:23:00,710 --> 02:23:07,170
signatures, which indicates there's
still a fair amount of supply that is

1762
02:23:07,170 --> 02:23:08,170
present.

1763
02:23:10,410 --> 02:23:15,590
Okay. But I'm asking you, if you're
thinking about the bearish bias,

1764
02:23:16,070 --> 02:23:19,490
how would the structure develop after
this?

1765
02:23:19,710 --> 02:23:22,870
Would it go down right away? Would it
consolidate?

1766
02:23:23,190 --> 02:23:25,610
What should happen here and why?

1767
02:23:26,810 --> 02:23:33,710
Okay, just looking at it, although that
bar at 61, again,

1768
02:23:33,810 --> 02:23:35,830
has, as I said, some...

1769
02:23:37,050 --> 02:23:41,710
demand tail it's the the level of
activity which makes me think as it goes

1770
02:23:41,710 --> 02:23:48,230
forward yes there will be a reaction but
how strong that reaction will be uh it

1771
02:23:48,230 --> 02:23:54,670
doesn't look like it would be very
strong so you mean up to 62 up to 62

1772
02:23:54,670 --> 02:23:59,660
that swing what is that swing 20 we're
calling it Okay, so the reaction to the

1773
02:23:59,660 --> 02:24:00,660
upside, okay.

1774
02:24:00,820 --> 02:24:07,040
Right. Okay. So there is likely, because
there has been some stopping action by

1775
02:24:07,040 --> 02:24:13,840
bar 61, but with the large volume
signature, it makes it a little bit

1776
02:24:13,840 --> 02:24:20,580
questionable of how far that any reverse
rally is going to rise.

1777
02:24:22,000 --> 02:24:25,140
Speculate. I'm trying to extract this
information from you.

1778
02:24:25,820 --> 02:24:28,100
Speculate as to what's going to happen
after 62.

1779
02:24:30,080 --> 02:24:35,120
I'm speculating that it is going to
resume its downward trend.

1780
02:24:35,540 --> 02:24:38,640
Okay, great. And that's kind of like
what I wanted to hear.

1781
02:24:38,860 --> 02:24:44,180
So therefore, if this is the case, if
the price is going to continue to the

1782
02:24:44,180 --> 02:24:50,700
downside from 62 and just going to go
down, then how would we label

1783
02:24:50,700 --> 02:24:51,700
61?

1784
02:24:52,040 --> 02:24:58,500
in the relationship to the 40, 42, 44,
55?

1785
02:24:59,280 --> 02:25:01,040
Could we label this whole thing?

1786
02:25:01,640 --> 02:25:05,020
You could label it, I guess, as a
spring.

1787
02:25:06,520 --> 02:25:09,860
Hold on a second. Are we talking about
the bullish scenario or a bearish

1788
02:25:09,860 --> 02:25:10,860
scenario?

1789
02:25:12,160 --> 02:25:16,700
Yeah, I guess, or a sign of weakness, I
guess, would be probably more

1790
02:25:16,700 --> 02:25:20,660
appropriate in a distribution. Okay,
let's review really quickly. So if we're

1791
02:25:20,660 --> 02:25:25,280
talking about a distribution, and in
this case, the original distribution is

1792
02:25:25,280 --> 02:25:26,400
right here at the top.

1793
02:25:26,800 --> 02:25:31,640
Right. And this is going to be
considered by us as a redistribution. So

1794
02:25:31,640 --> 02:25:33,920
redistribution is going to look like
this.

1795
02:25:36,400 --> 02:25:41,340
Right. A salient climax, which is going
to be intermediate salient climax, not

1796
02:25:41,340 --> 02:25:42,760
terminal, not final.

1797
02:25:43,440 --> 02:25:45,240
Secondary test, phase A.

1798
02:25:46,120 --> 02:25:49,740
Phase B, up thrust into phase C.

1799
02:25:51,620 --> 02:25:53,220
Major sign of weakness.

1800
02:25:55,160 --> 02:25:59,700
LPSY, and then a continuation to the
downside. I want you to label this whole

1801
02:25:59,700 --> 02:26:00,700
range.

1802
02:26:01,100 --> 02:26:02,100
Okay, so.

1803
02:26:02,760 --> 02:26:06,260
The way I was sort of looking at it is
61 is your sign of weakness.

1804
02:26:08,700 --> 02:26:12,480
62 would be the LPSY. Okay.

1805
02:26:13,300 --> 02:26:14,300
I won't do everything.

1806
02:26:15,040 --> 02:26:16,040
You won't.

1807
02:26:16,540 --> 02:26:19,020
And we're going back through there, then
up.

1808
02:26:19,280 --> 02:26:24,900
We're looking at 55, then would be the
upthrust. Okay.

1809
02:26:27,780 --> 02:26:28,780
Phase?

1810
02:26:29,720 --> 02:26:32,040
That would be phase C.

1811
02:26:34,570 --> 02:26:40,830
Yeah. And then you have prior to that
your secondary tests.

1812
02:26:41,970 --> 02:26:44,590
Do phase A first.

1813
02:26:44,970 --> 02:26:45,970
Oh, okay.

1814
02:26:46,090 --> 02:26:47,090
Yeah,

1815
02:26:48,150 --> 02:26:52,750
so that would be your sales climax
coming up.

1816
02:26:53,010 --> 02:26:57,050
42 would be your automatic reaction.

1817
02:26:58,830 --> 02:27:03,470
And, yeah, and then I was going to say
that you have your secondary test, which

1818
02:27:03,470 --> 02:27:04,910
would end your Phase A.

1819
02:27:05,110 --> 02:27:11,950
Okay. So see how simple that is, Doug?
Right. So Phase C, define Phase C,

1820
02:27:11,990 --> 02:27:13,070
define Phase A.

1821
02:27:13,430 --> 02:27:15,090
Everything in between is B.

1822
02:27:15,330 --> 02:27:19,510
You don't have to think about what's in
B here unless I'm asking you here, like

1823
02:27:19,510 --> 02:27:21,210
identify 46, 48.

1824
02:27:21,890 --> 02:27:24,590
So just a small shortcut for you.

1825
02:27:25,010 --> 02:27:28,030
Okay. So, yeah, it looks.

1826
02:27:28,600 --> 02:27:32,500
So here is a schematic, here is how it
looks.

1827
02:27:32,820 --> 02:27:36,240
Now, let's talk about characteristics.

1828
02:27:36,700 --> 02:27:42,600
So I want to extract from you the
information on the major sign of

1829
02:27:42,600 --> 02:27:44,880
in LPSY.

1830
02:27:45,400 --> 02:27:50,420
Okay, so major sign of weakness,
obviously in phase D,

1831
02:27:50,620 --> 02:27:54,540
are gonna have what type of the
characteristics?

1832
02:27:58,700 --> 02:28:03,140
It's going to have broken the support.

1833
02:28:04,020 --> 02:28:06,620
Okay, but in which way?

1834
02:28:07,080 --> 02:28:11,460
Because we could break support with the
spring as well. And our conversation

1835
02:28:11,460 --> 02:28:14,060
here is going to be more about this.

1836
02:28:14,640 --> 02:28:21,300
Major sign of weakness or a spring,
right? So

1837
02:28:21,300 --> 02:28:23,420
something like this.

1838
02:28:27,160 --> 02:28:33,320
In both cases, we will go below the
support level. So I want to establish

1839
02:28:33,320 --> 02:28:40,080
level of commitment, price commitment,
that major sign of weakness will have in

1840
02:28:40,080 --> 02:28:41,260
comparison to a spring.

1841
02:28:43,580 --> 02:28:48,700
Yeah, just looking at this chart, I
mean, one of the characteristics on the

1842
02:28:48,700 --> 02:28:55,280
spring would be that it does, which is
happening here, is it doesn't last very

1843
02:28:55,280 --> 02:28:56,280
long.

1844
02:28:57,430 --> 02:29:02,030
below the support, and there is a change
of character. Okay, so you're kind of

1845
02:29:02,030 --> 02:29:02,949
jumping forward.

1846
02:29:02,950 --> 02:29:08,090
I understand your logic there, but I
want us to stay on this thought for now

1847
02:29:08,090 --> 02:29:14,770
because that might, you know, I see that
you understand this, but I want others

1848
02:29:14,770 --> 02:29:20,030
also to understand as well. So major
sign of weakness is going to come down

1849
02:29:20,030 --> 02:29:25,130
which way in comparison to the spring?
You said that commitment of the spring

1850
02:29:25,130 --> 02:29:26,039
going to be...

1851
02:29:26,040 --> 02:29:27,160
Let's just call it temporary.

1852
02:29:28,220 --> 02:29:35,020
Yeah, I guess perhaps what you're saying
there is that you

1853
02:29:35,020 --> 02:29:38,420
have the commitment is to the downside.

1854
02:29:39,840 --> 02:29:45,700
To the close, would that be? Yes. By the
commitment, we are looking at the

1855
02:29:45,700 --> 02:29:51,980
close. Right. And we usually would like
to see that commitment, right? So let's

1856
02:29:51,980 --> 02:29:52,980
talk about the commitment.

1857
02:29:53,520 --> 02:29:58,920
That's okay if we're reviewing this,
guys, because we need to. Okay, so

1858
02:29:58,920 --> 02:30:01,740
commitment. How would we measure the
commitment?

1859
02:30:03,280 --> 02:30:09,700
This is a temporary commitment, and the
price just commits

1860
02:30:09,700 --> 02:30:11,420
with one close.

1861
02:30:13,820 --> 02:30:20,700
This is going to have a progressive
commitment to the

1862
02:30:20,700 --> 02:30:21,700
downside.

1863
02:30:24,450 --> 02:30:31,370
where we have multiple closes that are
below the levels of short

1864
02:30:31,370 --> 02:30:33,330
term commitment between the bars here.

1865
02:30:33,530 --> 02:30:34,630
So three closes.

1866
02:30:36,170 --> 02:30:40,150
So this is more of the temporary
commitment.

1867
02:30:40,770 --> 02:30:47,090
And this is, and then another one, a bar
like this. So imagine a bar like this.

1868
02:30:48,450 --> 02:30:51,270
This is more of the attempt to commit.

1869
02:30:52,080 --> 02:30:56,320
So it tries to commit on the intraday
level. We see this from the tail of the

1870
02:30:56,320 --> 02:30:58,840
bar, but it doesn't close below the
support.

1871
02:30:59,200 --> 02:31:05,640
Next bar, more permanent, more kind of
like significant commitment. At least

1872
02:31:05,640 --> 02:31:07,720
close below, but then it goes up.

1873
02:31:08,800 --> 02:31:13,140
More permanent commitment where we have
multiple closes.

1874
02:31:13,380 --> 02:31:19,520
And not only that, the closes to the
downside are showing some progression.

1875
02:31:21,770 --> 02:31:25,750
as they close lower and lower and lower.

1876
02:31:26,630 --> 02:31:29,270
So this is just on the commitment
itself.

1877
02:31:30,750 --> 02:31:33,570
But let's come back to the major sign of
weakness.

1878
02:31:33,850 --> 02:31:37,950
So you said that with this spring, we
are going to have somewhat of a

1879
02:31:37,950 --> 02:31:40,270
commitment. Maybe one close.

1880
02:31:41,030 --> 02:31:45,530
Maybe this is an attempt to commit to
the downside.

1881
02:31:45,910 --> 02:31:50,030
Now, what kind of commitment to the
downside would we have with the major

1882
02:31:50,030 --> 02:31:51,030
of weakness?

1883
02:31:52,460 --> 02:31:54,300
Well, it's a longer duration.

1884
02:31:54,960 --> 02:32:01,620
Okay, so stays... It stays below the
level of support for a

1885
02:32:01,620 --> 02:32:02,880
longer duration.

1886
02:32:03,760 --> 02:32:05,300
Support longer.

1887
02:32:05,840 --> 02:32:10,040
And this usually is going to mean that
you might have multiple closes.

1888
02:32:11,960 --> 02:32:12,960
Right.

1889
02:32:13,380 --> 02:32:16,880
Which I guess in this case you have
three, as it looks.

1890
02:32:18,599 --> 02:32:24,840
Well, we're only talking about the
progression of the commitment. If we

1891
02:32:24,840 --> 02:32:29,740
up bars in between these three closes
here on the commitment, we're still

1892
02:32:29,740 --> 02:32:35,380
to count one, two, and three. Why?
Because those are the most important

1893
02:32:35,380 --> 02:32:36,420
us below the support.

1894
02:32:36,800 --> 02:32:41,940
Are we staying below the support? And
are we progressing lower below the

1895
02:32:41,940 --> 02:32:42,940
support?

1896
02:32:43,400 --> 02:32:48,600
So let's say multiple closes, but the
idea that you said that staying below

1897
02:32:48,600 --> 02:32:51,220
support longer is the correct one.

1898
02:32:51,580 --> 02:32:56,300
Because if we're going to have multiple
closes below that would suggest that we

1899
02:32:56,300 --> 02:32:59,340
are staying below that price, that
support level.

1900
02:32:59,920 --> 02:33:05,360
Okay, so what are the characteristics?
Don't think about this right now. Don't

1901
02:33:05,360 --> 02:33:08,900
compare this. Don't think about this
screen. Don't think about the major sign

1902
02:33:08,900 --> 02:33:10,980
weakness. Let me teach you.

1903
02:33:11,690 --> 02:33:17,550
what is the next characteristic that we
would be looking at on the major sign of

1904
02:33:17,550 --> 02:33:23,730
weakness that would tell us that, yeah,
this is a major sign of weakness and not

1905
02:33:23,730 --> 02:33:24,890
necessarily a sprint.

1906
02:33:25,170 --> 02:33:27,170
And I'm going to give you a hint here.

1907
02:33:27,430 --> 02:33:32,750
I want you to look at the
characteristics of the move to the

1908
02:33:32,750 --> 02:33:33,750
61.

1909
02:33:34,950 --> 02:33:40,210
What would be the characteristic of a
major sign of weakness as the price

1910
02:33:40,210 --> 02:33:41,210
down?

1911
02:33:42,360 --> 02:33:46,880
Would it be accelerating to the
downside?

1912
02:33:47,300 --> 02:33:51,580
But I guess that applies also to a
spring.

1913
02:33:53,460 --> 02:33:56,860
But there might be a slight distinction
there.

1914
02:33:57,680 --> 02:34:03,520
Look at 37 to about 39, right? So this
is a sign of weakness. You could use

1915
02:34:03,520 --> 02:34:08,000
as an analog here in your comparison. So
what does this spread do?

1916
02:34:09,570 --> 02:34:14,510
Okay, so the spread is increasing.

1917
02:34:15,450 --> 02:34:20,430
Yes, increasing relative to what we've
seen, let's say, 33 to 35.

1918
02:34:21,250 --> 02:34:25,270
Right, which is happening in this
particular case also.

1919
02:34:26,170 --> 02:34:29,030
Okay, where exactly?

1920
02:34:29,410 --> 02:34:32,290
What are you comparing it to? So let's
look first.

1921
02:34:32,550 --> 02:34:34,290
Hold on. Don't rush.

1922
02:34:34,530 --> 02:34:36,510
This is very valuable.

1923
02:34:38,060 --> 02:34:43,400
What spread are you looking at downward
spread from 55 to 61?

1924
02:34:43,600 --> 02:34:48,760
If you would average all of the downward
spreads in this area, what do you think

1925
02:34:48,760 --> 02:34:50,780
the size of the downward spread would
be?

1926
02:34:53,320 --> 02:34:59,180
It looks like it would be around the
size of the major sign of weakness bar.

1927
02:35:01,340 --> 02:35:02,760
Like this one right here?

1928
02:35:03,120 --> 02:35:07,580
Yeah. Yeah, probably will be something
like this, right?

1929
02:35:08,060 --> 02:35:09,060
Right. Would you say?

1930
02:35:09,360 --> 02:35:15,060
Right, right. So this would be an
average down bar.

1931
02:35:16,020 --> 02:35:20,320
Okay, so is that threatening?

1932
02:35:22,120 --> 02:35:23,640
Is that threatening?

1933
02:35:23,860 --> 02:35:29,160
Is that as threatening as the downward
bars from 37 to 40?

1934
02:35:32,700 --> 02:35:36,420
No. Is it the same size as...

1935
02:35:36,650 --> 02:35:39,610
43, 49, and 53.

1936
02:35:40,590 --> 02:35:41,590
No.

1937
02:35:43,270 --> 02:35:48,490
Okay, so then what other characteristics
do we need for the major sign of

1938
02:35:48,490 --> 02:35:54,150
weakness here to show us that indeed
this is a major sign of weakness? We

1939
02:35:54,150 --> 02:35:57,630
it's in the spread, but also it should
be in the volume signature, right?

1940
02:35:58,060 --> 02:36:02,980
So we see how the volume starts to
increase here. And this is slightly

1941
02:36:02,980 --> 02:36:08,660
different. This is more, you know, comes
with an ease of movement. And even if

1942
02:36:08,660 --> 02:36:15,320
we said ease of movement here at 56,
look how different this is of movement

1943
02:36:15,320 --> 02:36:19,640
the distribution information here from
33 to 37.

1944
02:36:21,100 --> 02:36:23,080
It's definitely a larger.

1945
02:36:24,920 --> 02:36:28,500
A lot more volatility and a larger
spread in those bars.

1946
02:36:28,700 --> 02:36:34,480
Yeah. If we would compare two swings, we
would compare a swing from 37 to 40

1947
02:36:34,480 --> 02:36:40,720
with the swing from 55 to 61.

1948
02:36:41,120 --> 02:36:44,080
Which one is more bearish and which one
is more bullish?

1949
02:36:45,640 --> 02:36:49,540
Or let me rephrase this. Which one is
more bearish and which one is less

1950
02:36:49,540 --> 02:36:50,540
bearish?

1951
02:36:50,680 --> 02:36:57,280
well, definitely the 37 to 40, what is
that, 41, is more

1952
02:36:57,280 --> 02:37:02,900
bearish. Yeah. So we want basically to
see the volume increase on the major

1953
02:37:02,900 --> 02:37:09,820
of weakness. Why? Because we want to see
selling, increase in selling.

1954
02:37:11,140 --> 02:37:16,980
Do we see a substantial increase in
selling in this area?

1955
02:37:17,400 --> 02:37:19,920
So look at, let's say,

1956
02:37:20,900 --> 02:37:25,100
58 as the bar that does have some
selling.

1957
02:37:26,920 --> 02:37:33,480
Which bar else here do you see a
substantial selling?

1958
02:37:33,760 --> 02:37:38,500
I'm going to be extremely detailed here
because I want you guys to get this,

1959
02:37:38,540 --> 02:37:40,500
and, Doc, I want you to see this as
well.

1960
02:37:41,340 --> 02:37:44,500
56, does it have a lot of selling?

1961
02:37:45,800 --> 02:37:47,600
No, it doesn't. Okay.

1962
02:37:49,080 --> 02:37:54,460
First downward bar after 57, this one
right here, does it have a lot of

1963
02:37:56,340 --> 02:37:57,900
No, it's small again.

1964
02:37:58,240 --> 02:38:01,420
Okay, so 58 we discussed. Yes, there is
some selling.

1965
02:38:02,300 --> 02:38:06,560
Okay. And then next bar to that.

1966
02:38:08,700 --> 02:38:12,400
Yeah, same thing. It's relatively small.

1967
02:38:12,660 --> 02:38:14,620
What's the intention behind this bar?

1968
02:38:18,700 --> 02:38:25,100
The intention would be to go beyond bar
58, which it did.

1969
02:38:26,640 --> 02:38:27,760
It's to the downside.

1970
02:38:28,160 --> 02:38:30,620
Well, we see that there is an attempt to
rally here.

1971
02:38:31,280 --> 02:38:37,140
So in reality, this volume signature is
showing us an increase in the demand.

1972
02:38:37,980 --> 02:38:42,220
And the demand comes because of this bar
right here. This is where they bought

1973
02:38:42,220 --> 02:38:43,159
in before.

1974
02:38:43,160 --> 02:38:47,000
So someone's thinking, I'm going to do
the same. I'm going to buy at this

1975
02:38:47,500 --> 02:38:50,940
because this is an area of the support,
and then the price is going to go up.

1976
02:38:51,440 --> 02:38:57,960
They're lucky for a moment there that
the price goes up, and then

1977
02:38:57,960 --> 02:39:00,060
it's being sold into them again.

1978
02:39:01,180 --> 02:39:06,780
So we can't really say that this is a
lot of selling. Some buying is behind

1979
02:39:06,780 --> 02:39:12,740
as well. Okay, what about the next three
bars or the next four down bars?

1980
02:39:13,840 --> 02:39:14,840
Yeah, they are.

1981
02:39:15,200 --> 02:39:22,020
The volume is down. I was looking at it
from that intermediate bar 2 after

1982
02:39:22,020 --> 02:39:27,020
58. There's an increase in volume
happening up to 61.

1983
02:39:27,420 --> 02:39:31,160
Don't go away from me. Don't go away
from me. Just stay with me. Stay with

1984
02:39:31,740 --> 02:39:36,840
Because there are so many details, if
we're going to just side note, we're

1985
02:39:36,840 --> 02:39:41,120
to lose the logic here. So looking at
this volume signature, is there a lot of

1986
02:39:41,120 --> 02:39:43,400
selling on the way down as we go down?

1987
02:39:44,650 --> 02:39:45,650
Probably not.

1988
02:39:45,750 --> 02:39:52,670
Yeah. Probably not. Then we go into the
59 to 60 area. There are attempts to

1989
02:39:52,670 --> 02:39:55,810
rally. So some demand starts to occur
here.

1990
02:39:56,010 --> 02:40:01,810
So here is a function of the demand. And
we're still failing. But are we failing

1991
02:40:01,810 --> 02:40:04,150
on the increased supply that's coming
in?

1992
02:40:04,670 --> 02:40:05,950
Not at this point.

1993
02:40:07,170 --> 02:40:10,750
Demand is increasing and the volume
signature locally increased.

1994
02:40:10,990 --> 02:40:14,090
But it's not as much as what...

1995
02:40:14,350 --> 02:40:15,790
selling we have had before.

1996
02:40:16,070 --> 02:40:17,410
So selling is going down.

1997
02:40:17,650 --> 02:40:23,770
So we kind of see through the
progression of this reaction that the

1998
02:40:23,770 --> 02:40:26,510
actually going down. So now let's
combine everything.

1999
02:40:27,330 --> 02:40:29,990
And again, just kind of stay with me.

2000
02:40:31,590 --> 02:40:37,490
We've said that we need to see what's
going to happen with the commitment

2001
02:40:37,490 --> 02:40:38,309
the support.

2002
02:40:38,310 --> 02:40:41,110
We see only one close below.

2003
02:40:42,280 --> 02:40:44,400
And then the price recovers.

2004
02:40:45,760 --> 02:40:52,260
And recovers relatively quick, right?
Then we said that a major sign of

2005
02:40:52,260 --> 02:40:59,000
is going to have the characteristics
where the volume is increasing and

2006
02:40:59,000 --> 02:41:01,240
therefore supply is increasing on the
way down.

2007
02:41:02,120 --> 02:41:08,780
Plus, the down spread is showing some
kind of

2008
02:41:08,780 --> 02:41:10,940
also element of the increase of the
result.

2009
02:41:11,480 --> 02:41:12,480
to the downside.

2010
02:41:13,920 --> 02:41:14,980
Do we have?

2011
02:41:15,900 --> 02:41:17,160
Yeah, we don't have that.

2012
02:41:17,380 --> 02:41:18,380
We don't have that.

2013
02:41:18,660 --> 02:41:24,920
Okay. So if we don't have that, then
it's probably not a sign of weakness, at

2014
02:41:24,920 --> 02:41:26,300
least for now.

2015
02:41:26,640 --> 02:41:28,680
At least we need to confirm this.

2016
02:41:29,740 --> 02:41:33,460
Then probably we're thinking that this
could be a potential spring.

2017
02:41:34,340 --> 02:41:38,520
Okay. So now, again, we're not done.

2018
02:41:39,000 --> 02:41:42,480
So guys, don't think that we've defined
this.

2019
02:41:46,720 --> 02:41:49,380
Doug, let's talk about the spring.

2020
02:41:51,280 --> 02:41:55,920
What kind of structure the spring would
have around the support? So we are

2021
02:41:55,920 --> 02:42:00,140
committing to the downside, and then
what should happen after the spring?

2022
02:42:01,400 --> 02:42:05,320
It should, as the name implies, it
should spring. There should be a

2023
02:42:07,790 --> 02:42:13,850
Okay, so we have that, so that's the
first confirmation. The price

2024
02:42:13,850 --> 02:42:20,370
commits below the support, has some kind
of demand signature on both of the

2025
02:42:20,370 --> 02:42:26,790
bars, and the price comes back into the
trading range. So we are confirming a

2026
02:42:26,790 --> 02:42:28,870
couple of things here. Number one,

2027
02:42:30,090 --> 02:42:32,910
short commitment, temporary commitment
to the downside.

2028
02:42:33,150 --> 02:42:35,830
Number two, emergence of demand.

2029
02:42:36,620 --> 02:42:43,460
Number three, coming back into the
trading range. Trading range. Number

2030
02:42:43,560 --> 02:42:45,200
what should happen after that comeback?

2031
02:42:48,100 --> 02:42:49,220
It should test.

2032
02:42:49,620 --> 02:42:50,620
Test.

2033
02:42:51,540 --> 02:42:57,940
So we are waiting for a test to happen.
If test happens, this is going to be

2034
02:42:57,940 --> 02:43:02,460
another confirmation that this was a
spring. What is the next one?

2035
02:43:04,280 --> 02:43:05,280
After that?

2036
02:43:05,360 --> 02:43:06,360
Yes.

2037
02:43:06,560 --> 02:43:13,400
then it should rise through the trading
range to some sort of sign of strength.

2038
02:43:13,440 --> 02:43:20,280
This commitment below this local
resistance that is being created between

2039
02:43:20,280 --> 02:43:25,840
below the spring and below the test,
this high right here, I'm going to give

2040
02:43:25,840 --> 02:43:32,840
name to that because this is such an
important localized high right here. If

2041
02:43:32,840 --> 02:43:38,660
have a local breakout of that, It's
going to act as a confirmation,

2042
02:43:39,140 --> 02:43:42,760
final confirmation that this was a
spring.

2043
02:43:49,580 --> 02:43:54,500
Let's kind of like stay in this space a
little bit. Let's observe all of this.

2044
02:43:56,760 --> 02:44:03,640
Okay. So we are thinking that does not
look like

2045
02:44:03,640 --> 02:44:04,840
a major sign of weakness.

2046
02:44:05,480 --> 02:44:06,700
We might still be mistaken.

2047
02:44:07,180 --> 02:44:11,240
If this is the spring, give us the test.
Test number one is there, temporary

2048
02:44:11,240 --> 02:44:16,180
commitment. Test number two is there,
demand is present, and there is

2049
02:44:16,180 --> 02:44:17,460
on the way down there.

2050
02:44:18,300 --> 02:44:23,720
The test number three, the price comes
back above the support level and comes

2051
02:44:23,720 --> 02:44:27,380
back into the trading range. We still
don't have test number four.

2052
02:44:27,870 --> 02:44:33,790
which is the test itself, and we don't
have the test number five, which is the

2053
02:44:33,790 --> 02:44:38,470
local breakout above the resistance
level, which probably will be somewhere

2054
02:44:38,470 --> 02:44:39,470
here.

2055
02:44:40,370 --> 02:44:46,190
So this is what we are looking at. If we
have this, the breakout,

2056
02:44:46,530 --> 02:44:52,950
this is going to confirm the bias to the
upside, at least a

2057
02:44:52,950 --> 02:44:54,050
short -term bias.

2058
02:44:54,670 --> 02:44:56,710
By the way, really quick question, Doug.

2059
02:44:57,580 --> 02:45:00,880
If this confirms, actually two
questions.

2060
02:45:01,400 --> 02:45:08,100
If the breakout confirms that this was a
spring, where is the target for that

2061
02:45:08,100 --> 02:45:09,140
trade? That's number one.

2062
02:45:11,960 --> 02:45:18,540
The target for the trade would be up at
50, well, in the area of 46, 48,

2063
02:45:18,660 --> 02:45:23,600
53. Okay, great. So this is our target
number one.

2064
02:45:24,840 --> 02:45:28,540
If this is a spring, then what is the
rally? How would we label the rally?

2065
02:45:31,020 --> 02:45:33,760
How would you label the rally?

2066
02:45:34,020 --> 02:45:36,780
Think about spring, phase C.

2067
02:45:37,620 --> 02:45:40,980
Oh, it'd be phase D, yes. Phase D.

2068
02:45:41,600 --> 02:45:46,380
Yeah. And this rally would be labeled
as?

2069
02:45:47,880 --> 02:45:52,000
Major, well, major sign of strength or
possible major sign of strength. Major

2070
02:45:52,000 --> 02:45:53,000
sign of strength.

2071
02:45:53,340 --> 02:46:00,180
Where in phase C on a spring, then the
next thing

2072
02:46:00,180 --> 02:46:03,060
that's going to happen is phase D and a
major sign of strength.

2073
02:46:03,360 --> 02:46:08,660
So our target is not necessarily just on
the boundaries of the resistance here

2074
02:46:08,660 --> 02:46:10,740
of 46, 48, 53, 55.

2075
02:46:12,580 --> 02:46:15,760
Because what is the definition of the
major sign of strength?

2076
02:46:16,940 --> 02:46:22,620
That it goes above the trading range,
closes above.

2077
02:46:23,290 --> 02:46:24,290
The trading range.

2078
02:46:24,470 --> 02:46:27,590
Closest above the trading range
boundaries.

2079
02:46:28,050 --> 02:46:30,110
It didn't make a commitment above
resistance.

2080
02:46:30,850 --> 02:46:33,510
It makes a commitment above resistance.

2081
02:46:33,850 --> 02:46:35,470
Right, exactly.

2082
02:46:35,850 --> 02:46:41,250
So the major sign of strength in
comparison to all of the upthrust that

2083
02:46:41,250 --> 02:46:46,750
before would travel through the trading
range starting with, you know, at the

2084
02:46:46,750 --> 02:46:47,790
loss of phase C.

2085
02:46:48,350 --> 02:46:55,330
would commit above the resistance
cluster that was created in

2086
02:46:55,330 --> 02:47:02,070
phases A and B, and then would come back
into the area of that resistance. Now

2087
02:47:02,070 --> 02:47:04,430
that is going to act as a support.

2088
02:47:04,690 --> 02:47:09,170
So we have a target number two as well
somewhere here. So two targets. So that

2089
02:47:09,170 --> 02:47:10,250
was the question number one.

2090
02:47:11,050 --> 02:47:17,170
Secondly, if that were to unfold, where
would we open a position?

2091
02:47:21,260 --> 02:47:26,160
You'd be opening a position after that
test.

2092
02:47:26,520 --> 02:47:27,520
After the test?

2093
02:47:27,720 --> 02:47:28,720
The first test.

2094
02:47:28,920 --> 02:47:29,920
Where else?

2095
02:47:30,000 --> 02:47:31,900
Okay, so number one.

2096
02:47:32,460 --> 02:47:38,040
Right, well, up at the backing up action
that will hopefully occur.

2097
02:47:38,460 --> 02:47:39,460
You mean right here?

2098
02:47:39,620 --> 02:47:43,760
Yes. Okay, but before that, are there
any other places?

2099
02:47:46,420 --> 02:47:49,760
I guess perhaps after it.

2100
02:47:50,000 --> 02:47:54,500
It passes the level of 62 you might
enter?

2101
02:47:54,800 --> 02:48:00,760
Absolutely. This breakout acts as a
confirmation, as we said, right? Right.

2102
02:48:00,760 --> 02:48:06,220
this confirmation equals just a point of
entry for us. Why wouldn't we get busy

2103
02:48:06,220 --> 02:48:10,640
here with this trade at this point?
Because if we're thinking that target

2104
02:48:10,640 --> 02:48:14,420
and target two are so far away, it's a
really good swing trade.

2105
02:48:14,620 --> 02:48:18,520
Even if we are wrong and this is not a
major sign of strength.

2106
02:48:19,330 --> 02:48:23,470
and it's going to become an up for us
like we've experienced before.

2107
02:48:24,110 --> 02:48:27,890
It's still a really good trade because
we have a lot of distance here.

2108
02:48:28,490 --> 02:48:33,290
This was a very quick trade. We probably
might not even consider this. This

2109
02:48:33,290 --> 02:48:39,850
trade was quick and also we might not
consider it because within the

2110
02:48:39,850 --> 02:48:46,010
contextual structure of where we are,
phase B, we're not necessarily that

2111
02:48:46,010 --> 02:48:48,330
about this. But this was a good trade.

2112
02:48:49,870 --> 02:48:51,770
And then this could be a good trait.

2113
02:48:51,990 --> 02:48:55,830
So these are the two swing traits within
the context of the structure.

2114
02:48:56,230 --> 02:49:03,010
And then when we are in this position,
and if the major sign of

2115
02:49:03,010 --> 02:49:07,410
strength characteristics are going to
unfold, like what we've done with the

2116
02:49:07,410 --> 02:49:11,970
major sign of weakness comparison to the
sprain with dog, we're going to do the

2117
02:49:11,970 --> 02:49:17,190
same process when we're going to look at
that rally. And we're going to say, are

2118
02:49:17,190 --> 02:49:18,250
there characteristics?

2119
02:49:19,040 --> 02:49:22,720
of a major sign of strength as the price
moves up?

2120
02:49:22,920 --> 02:49:29,460
Are there other definitional
characteristics of the major sign of

2121
02:49:29,460 --> 02:49:31,600
the price approaches the resistance?

2122
02:49:32,320 --> 02:49:37,020
Is there any supply that is starting to
emerge in this place?

2123
02:49:37,340 --> 02:49:43,560
And if it does, what's the rate of
absorption for that supply in this

2124
02:49:43,560 --> 02:49:44,560
level?

2125
02:49:45,000 --> 02:49:50,180
And then we'll go through the same
process that we've done at 61 with the

2126
02:49:50,180 --> 02:49:51,560
sign of weakness at the spring.

2127
02:49:51,960 --> 02:49:56,840
So therefore, on the way up, we do have
quite a few opportunities to establish

2128
02:49:56,840 --> 02:49:57,840
this position.

2129
02:49:58,240 --> 02:50:04,400
The test itself could be our first point
of entry. The breakout above 62 could

2130
02:50:04,400 --> 02:50:05,720
be a second point of entry.

2131
02:50:05,920 --> 02:50:12,200
Any type of significant bars to the
upside as a sign of strength bar

2132
02:50:12,200 --> 02:50:14,180
could be also.

2133
02:50:14,700 --> 02:50:15,880
another point of entry.

2134
02:50:16,100 --> 02:50:20,720
So we could potentially have maybe like
two, three points of entry here. That's

2135
02:50:20,720 --> 02:50:25,560
number one. We definitely want to slow
down as we're approaching the resistance

2136
02:50:25,560 --> 02:50:28,320
because we don't know if supply is going
to come or not.

2137
02:50:28,600 --> 02:50:32,440
We'd rather wait, as Doug has said, for
the backing up action or a confirmation

2138
02:50:32,440 --> 02:50:33,440
of that.

2139
02:50:35,180 --> 02:50:38,260
So that's going to be kind of like our
strategy.

2140
02:50:39,020 --> 02:50:40,760
Okay. Yes, sir.

2141
02:50:42,019 --> 02:50:47,360
Between 61 and 62, what sort of threw me
off is the declining volume signature,

2142
02:50:47,680 --> 02:50:54,620
and that's what made me think that it
was

2143
02:50:54,620 --> 02:50:56,220
not a spring.

2144
02:50:56,760 --> 02:50:57,760
Yeah.

2145
02:50:58,080 --> 02:51:02,560
Okay, well, let's definitely address
this, and then we have one more point I

2146
02:51:02,560 --> 02:51:05,900
want to show you guys, you know, where
we are with that, and that's going to be

2147
02:51:05,900 --> 02:51:06,900
your homework.

2148
02:51:08,890 --> 02:51:12,690
We're definitely going to go much faster
next time. Doc, don't think that this

2149
02:51:12,690 --> 02:51:16,150
is you. Everything that you and I have
done is fantastic.

2150
02:51:16,850 --> 02:51:18,530
That's great. Thank you very much.

2151
02:51:18,750 --> 02:51:25,690
Yeah, because you brought up correct
thoughts, and we, you know,

2152
02:51:25,690 --> 02:51:31,890
correct in a way of your thoughts
produced correct questions.

2153
02:51:33,030 --> 02:51:37,290
And it was great how we went through all
of this because

2154
02:51:38,040 --> 02:51:39,720
the logic was presented.

2155
02:51:40,120 --> 02:51:43,760
So we could be mistaken, guys.

2156
02:51:44,320 --> 02:51:51,180
And it's not a huge mistake to be

2157
02:51:51,180 --> 02:51:57,100
mistaken in our analysis. It's a huge
mistake not to analyze it and then not

2158
02:51:57,100 --> 02:51:59,220
adjust ourselves in the logic.

2159
02:51:59,500 --> 02:52:01,620
And that's exactly what we've done here.

2160
02:52:01,840 --> 02:52:04,220
But let's come back to the question that
Doug is asking.

2161
02:52:04,560 --> 02:52:06,760
The volume signature is diminishing.

2162
02:52:07,290 --> 02:52:10,370
So therefore, what is happening with the
supply?

2163
02:52:12,730 --> 02:52:16,450
The supply is diminishing. What is
happening with the demand?

2164
02:52:17,890 --> 02:52:24,490
The demand would either be the same or
is diminishing somewhat. Actually, it

2165
02:52:24,490 --> 02:52:27,910
would have to be increasing a little
bit, otherwise it wouldn't go up.

2166
02:52:28,170 --> 02:52:34,670
Okay, so this is where our analytical
issue is lying.

2167
02:52:35,000 --> 02:52:39,000
So could we have this situation?

2168
02:52:39,300 --> 02:52:43,360
Could price go up on diminishing demand?

2169
02:52:44,900 --> 02:52:47,220
Yes, if supply is exhausted.

2170
02:52:47,740 --> 02:52:54,420
Yeah, if supply is poor or exhausted. Is
supply poor

2171
02:52:54,420 --> 02:52:57,220
or exhausted or diminishing here?

2172
02:52:58,700 --> 02:53:01,660
Yeah, it's diminishing, right? It's
poor.

2173
02:53:01,920 --> 02:53:04,000
Demand is diminishing too.

2174
02:53:04,810 --> 02:53:06,470
But yet, what is the price doing?

2175
02:53:07,590 --> 02:53:11,570
Price is going up. This is what we
discussed last week, I guess. Yes, yes,

2176
02:53:11,570 --> 02:53:15,050
yes. Remember that chart with Home
Depot?

2177
02:53:15,330 --> 02:53:17,450
Remember the ice cream story?

2178
02:53:17,870 --> 02:53:19,410
Yes, great story.

2179
02:53:19,750 --> 02:53:26,390
So ice cream story is all about
diminishing supply, diminishing demand,

2180
02:53:26,390 --> 02:53:28,090
the price is going up.

2181
02:53:28,290 --> 02:53:30,470
So kind of the same here.

2182
02:53:30,750 --> 02:53:32,650
But there are two concepts here.

2183
02:53:33,070 --> 02:53:39,290
So the ice cream concept is all in how
the price goes up and how the volume

2184
02:53:39,290 --> 02:53:41,610
the supply and the demand are going
down.

2185
02:53:41,950 --> 02:53:48,310
But the one that precedes it, and we
didn't go through this a lot, was bar

2186
02:53:48,310 --> 02:53:54,070
number 61 and bar before that. On these
two bars, we see that the volume has

2187
02:53:54,070 --> 02:53:59,550
emerged. And it's only temporarily that
the price went down. So the question

2188
02:53:59,550 --> 02:54:03,340
here is, how could the volume signature
increase so much? How could supply

2189
02:54:03,340 --> 02:54:08,120
increase so much? And yet, only one
temporary commitment to the downside,

2190
02:54:08,120 --> 02:54:10,280
then the next bar, it tries to come
back.

2191
02:54:10,540 --> 02:54:15,160
So we know that with this increased
volume signature, we're probably

2192
02:54:15,160 --> 02:54:19,500
about the increase of the demand. So
therefore, we're thinking about

2193
02:54:19,500 --> 02:54:21,740
on the way down. That is happening.

2194
02:54:23,600 --> 02:54:25,460
Wow. Great example.

2195
02:54:26,720 --> 02:54:27,840
So then...

2196
02:54:28,780 --> 02:54:34,540
We are observing the supply on the way
down, and then supply is exhausted, it's

2197
02:54:34,540 --> 02:54:39,000
diminishing, and demand is diminishing
only because it has come here.

2198
02:54:39,640 --> 02:54:40,640
It's sufficient.

2199
02:54:41,440 --> 02:54:46,200
There is no more need for additional
demand, at least at this point.

2200
02:54:46,460 --> 02:54:52,560
Unless supply emerges, demand might come
back and emerge again, if the CEO is

2201
02:54:52,560 --> 02:54:56,260
thinking that this is a good value for
me here, and this is a good selection.

2202
02:54:57,130 --> 02:55:00,030
And at 62, that doesn't happen, does it?

2203
02:55:01,030 --> 02:55:04,630
The supply doesn't increase
tremendously.

2204
02:55:05,130 --> 02:55:10,510
No, there's nothing. So if we would be
considering this as a test, we probably

2205
02:55:10,510 --> 02:55:12,630
would say it's a successful test.

2206
02:55:12,910 --> 02:55:14,850
The test is happening above the support.

2207
02:55:15,290 --> 02:55:17,690
The test is happening as a high or low.

2208
02:55:17,930 --> 02:55:19,590
We obviously need to reverse that.

2209
02:55:20,950 --> 02:55:24,390
We had a short -term high or high right
here.

2210
02:55:24,630 --> 02:55:26,550
And supply is...

2211
02:55:26,840 --> 02:55:30,340
One of the lowest supply signatures on
this chart.

2212
02:55:31,380 --> 02:55:35,060
And one of the lowest signatures since
the selling climax.

2213
02:55:35,860 --> 02:55:40,960
So it looks like a good test at this
point, at least for now.

2214
02:55:41,880 --> 02:55:47,340
So, Doug, that's the main point for you,
just, you know, on a kind of like

2215
02:55:47,340 --> 02:55:48,420
personal level, right?

2216
02:55:49,260 --> 02:55:52,500
And personal, I mean, like for you on an
individual level.

2217
02:55:53,500 --> 02:55:55,240
The price might advance.

2218
02:55:56,040 --> 02:56:02,160
when demand is diminishing, and that
would be the function of exhausted

2219
02:56:03,180 --> 02:56:09,640
And we definitely want to combine that
concept with the absorption on the way

2220
02:56:09,640 --> 02:56:14,840
down that we see from this volume
signature right here. Then also add the

2221
02:56:14,840 --> 02:56:19,920
of the structural analysis,
characteristics of the major sign of

2222
02:56:19,920 --> 02:56:21,320
comparison to a spring.

2223
02:56:22,090 --> 02:56:27,430
And that kind of brings me – I'm going
to make a note. I'm going to make a

2224
02:56:27,430 --> 02:56:33,030
for maybe next cycle where major sign of
weakness is compared to a spring, and

2225
02:56:33,030 --> 02:56:36,510
then upthrust is compared to a sign of
strength.

2226
02:56:36,870 --> 02:56:40,130
And I think that could be a better
explanation.

2227
02:56:41,570 --> 02:56:42,570
What else, Doug?

2228
02:56:42,870 --> 02:56:44,750
It's all contextual, isn't it?

2229
02:56:44,970 --> 02:56:46,170
It is, yeah.

2230
02:56:47,070 --> 02:56:51,270
Of course, yeah. The context is always
going to be a layer for us. So we're

2231
02:56:51,270 --> 02:56:57,530
going to have the layer of
interpretation of the bars, volume bars

2232
02:56:57,530 --> 02:57:01,910
bars. We're going to have the layer of
the context in terms of labeling. We're

2233
02:57:01,910 --> 02:57:08,530
going to also have the context of swing
analysis like we did from 55 to 61

2234
02:57:08,530 --> 02:57:11,070
compared to 37 to 41.

2235
02:57:11,430 --> 02:57:14,370
There's going to be also the layer of...

2236
02:57:15,730 --> 02:57:17,810
characteristics of the specific WCAG
events.

2237
02:57:18,350 --> 02:57:23,870
So the comparison, right? So what, how
it should look like. And that's why I'm

2238
02:57:23,870 --> 02:57:28,730
saying to you guys that all of the
material that we've learned, you know,

2239
02:57:28,730 --> 02:57:33,590
the first months, you gotta review, you
gotta go back there, you gotta pull out.

2240
02:57:33,930 --> 02:57:39,390
from your library of slides, you know,
that slide on major sign of weakness and

2241
02:57:39,390 --> 02:57:43,810
a sprain. You know, what are the
differences? You know, how do I

2242
02:57:43,810 --> 02:57:45,850
know, interpret it here and so on and so
forth.

2243
02:57:46,330 --> 02:57:47,330
Okay, great.

2244
02:57:48,830 --> 02:57:53,330
Doug, one more thing here. Let's see
what happens next.

2245
02:57:56,690 --> 02:58:02,810
Okay, so here we're going to start next
time with this slide, but what I want

2246
02:58:02,810 --> 02:58:07,320
to, talk to you quickly here is

2247
02:58:07,320 --> 02:58:14,200
actually let me just pose this as a
question for the homework. And obviously

2248
02:58:14,200 --> 02:58:18,240
homework, guys, is just to watch this
segment again of the exercise, the

2249
02:58:18,240 --> 02:58:19,240
exercise segment.

2250
02:58:20,400 --> 02:58:22,800
Rewatch it and make notes. Send those to
me.

2251
02:58:23,220 --> 02:58:30,160
But the question, the homework question
is going to be this.

2252
02:58:33,800 --> 02:58:38,180
Bar number, I'm extremely interested in
bar number 64 and 65.

2253
02:58:42,180 --> 02:58:44,100
Those are the breakout bars.

2254
02:58:47,620 --> 02:58:52,020
Are we entering the position on these
bars or not?

2255
02:58:52,560 --> 02:58:55,100
So let's make this a homework.

2256
02:58:56,080 --> 02:58:58,640
And this is where we're going to stop
today.

2257
02:59:02,760 --> 02:59:08,780
Would you be entering on these two bars,
on the breakout bars? Because our

2258
02:59:08,780 --> 02:59:14,700
strategy was a sprint, a test,

2259
02:59:14,920 --> 02:59:19,660
and we are buying here on the breakout.

2260
02:59:22,280 --> 02:59:28,680
So the question is, would we be buyers
on bar number 64 and bar number 65?

2261
02:59:28,920 --> 02:59:31,540
Doug, again, that was a really good job.

2262
02:59:32,560 --> 02:59:39,320
And I commend you for stepping in and
being in that

2263
02:59:39,320 --> 02:59:45,980
maybe uncomfortable zone, but going
through this and learning and staying

2264
02:59:45,980 --> 02:59:50,680
the logic of it and kind of like
finishing this. So really good job.

2265
02:59:51,400 --> 02:59:52,980
Thanks a lot. That was great.

2266
02:59:53,380 --> 02:59:54,380
Okay.

2267
02:59:54,700 --> 02:59:58,440
All right, guys, this is it for today.
Don't forget the homework.

2268
03:00:01,759 --> 03:00:05,720
Definitely we're going to continue in
the next class.

2269
03:00:05,980 --> 03:00:10,720
I think we're going to have less of the
theoretical material in the next class.

2270
03:00:10,880 --> 03:00:12,140
I want to finish this exercise.

2271
03:00:12,520 --> 03:00:18,240
If you can believe I have 30 more slides
on this, 30 plus slides on this, so at

2272
03:00:18,240 --> 03:00:20,380
some point we're going to go really
fast.

2273
03:00:21,140 --> 03:00:25,920
A question here from Nilesh. Could you
please upload power slides for this

2274
03:00:25,920 --> 03:00:26,920
exercise?

2275
03:00:28,320 --> 03:00:34,660
So usually we provide you guys with,
with what, with the PDF.

2276
03:00:35,140 --> 03:00:38,860
Is there a difference for you on eyelash
between PDF and the power slide?

2277
03:00:39,520 --> 03:00:43,220
You know, I could definitely do that.
You mean the homework power slide?

2278
03:00:43,560 --> 03:00:45,720
Okay, yeah, I could do that. I could do
that.

2279
03:00:47,400 --> 03:00:52,540
I probably should do this in a slightly
different way, but yeah, I could

2280
03:00:52,540 --> 03:00:54,820
definitely see how it's easier than the
PDF.

2281
03:00:55,060 --> 03:00:59,640
I'm just thinking about all of these
numbers because in the PDF it's

2282
03:00:59,740 --> 03:01:06,240
but I'll probably just copy -paste it
and still paste it into the PowerPoint.

2283
03:01:06,660 --> 03:01:07,660
So yeah, thank you.

2284
03:01:08,140 --> 03:01:11,560
All right, guys, I'll see you next week.
Good class, good job.

2285
03:01:12,260 --> 03:01:17,940
We're moving along, so let's just finish
it next week. Thank you, guys, and bye

2286
03:01:17,940 --> 03:01:18,940
-bye.